Board approves May update to five-year financial forecast; treasurer warns revenue uncertainty

The Cincinnati Board of Education voted May 19 to adopt the May update to the district's five-year forecast, a required filing with the Ohio Department of Education. Treasurer's office staff and district budget directors briefed the board on assumptions, risk factors and scenarios before the roll-call vote.

Assistant Treasurer Guston and Director of Financial Transparency and Reporting Kevin Ashley told the board the May forecast increased revenue estimates for fiscal 2026 compared with the November forecast based on updated enrollment and tax receipts. The May filing uses current statewide assumptions that mirror much of the House budget language at the time of the presentation; staff cautioned that the state budget process was not finalized and that changes could materially affect district revenue.

Key figures presented by staff included an FY26 revenue estimate of about $628.6 million (roughly $4 million higher than the November projection) and a projected deficit for the current fiscal year (FY25) of about $12.3 million when books are closed. Staff told the board the forecast includes the planned renewal of the district's fixed-sum emergency levy; the model shows the levy's half-year and full-year collections in later forecast years. The forecast also estimates an ending cash balance for fiscal 2029 of about $65.7 million and an unencumbered cash amount of about $47.4 million after estimated encumbrances.

Budget staff emphasized multiple risks: passages or changes in the state budget (including proposals to cap district carryover or alter the 20-mill floor), potential federal funding changes and the uncertainty that remains until appropriations are finalized. Kevin Ashley told the board that the forecast requires judgment calls across a multi-year horizon and that the treasurer's office had modeled several scenarios, including a more conservative case that would require earlier new revenue or deeper reductions.

The board voted to adopt the May version of the five-year forecast, including the supporting notes. The roll-call vote recorded: Mr. Craig, yes; Mr. Crossett, yes; Mr. Lindy, yes; Miss Mapp, yes; Mrs. Weinberg, yes; Vice President Bolton, yes; President Moffitt, yes. Assistant Treasurer Guston and Kevin Ashley said the forecast will be filed with the Ohio Department of Education on schedule.

What the board heard: staff and board members discussed the relationship between steady local tax revenue (which accounts for a majority of the district's general-fund revenue) and state and federal funding, and board members asked for follow-up reporting. Board members requested more school-level detail and analysis correlating partner programs and resource coordinators with student outcomes and asked staff to provide additional breakout data by department and contract category for upcoming meetings.

Next steps: the forecast is filed with state education officials as required; administration staff said they will return with additional detail in the budget process and proposed actions to close the remaining budget gaps for fiscal 2026.