County planners tell Hatboro‑Horsham SD enrollment could rise modestly over 10 years

David Greenberg, a planner with the Montgomery County Planning Commission, told the Hatboro‑Horsham School District Board on May 19 that the county had completed a 2025 update to the district’s enrollment study.

The study’s authors said the district’s recent enrollment decline has paused and that modest growth is possible under several scenarios. “We have just completed, 2025 update to the Hatboro‑Horsham School District enrollment study,” Greenberg said, introducing the presentation.

The study presents four projection scenarios using a cohort progression model. Anne Lehi Gruburger, who helped present the methodology, said the team used recent three‑year averages to smooth pandemic anomalies and built scenarios that vary by future birth rates and expected new‑housing occupancy. “So I’m gonna shift a little bit to talking more about the math behind this report,” Gruburger said as she described the projection model and assumptions.

Why it matters: enrollment drives classroom counts, facility needs and long‑term capital planning. Board members heard that small increases concentrated in elementary and secondary grades would affect space and budget planning over the next decade.

Key findings presented - The commission said recent post‑pandemic enrollment gains — including about a net increase of 75 students a couple years after COVID’s start — have changed the near‑term outlook. According to the presentation, the four scenarios produce total 10‑year changes ranging roughly from +86 students (scenario A, births remain steady) to about +285 students (scenario B, higher future births). A middle scenario that adds realistic housing growth projected about +222 students over 10 years and showed most growth in the elementary and middle levels. - Planners flagged drivers of those differences: slightly higher local births in the post‑pandemic period, an influx of people in peak childbearing ages, multifamily and attached housing construction, and variations in private‑school and homeschool enrollment. - The presentation included a list of pending or proposed housing developments (for example, Avenue at Horsham, ~274 units) and estimated student yield if those projects proceed. The consultants noted some proposals are still in early review and are not guaranteed.

Questions and limits Board members asked about private‑school and homeschooling trends and how Hatboro‑Horsham compares with neighboring districts. The presenters said private‑school percentages shown in American Community Survey data can vary and that some districts have already returned to pre‑pandemic patterns while others have not. The presenters cautioned that census and ACS estimates include sampling error and pandemic‑era anomalies; they described the private‑school and homeschool figures as “estimates” rather than exact counts.

What the board will do next No formal action was taken at the meeting on the enrollment study; the presentation was provided for planning use and to inform the district’s facility and capital discussions. Planners and district staff said they are available to answer follow‑up questions and to provide additional benchmarking on private‑school and homeschool shares upon request.

Ending The Montgomery County Planning Commission presenters said the district should monitor births, housing construction and private‑school enrollment as the most important near‑term signals shaping actual enrollment versus projections.