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Little Miami treasurer warns five-year forecast shows steep spending growth; board presented renewal levy implications
Summary
Treasurer presented a five-year forecast showing enrollment growth but larger projected spending increases, stressing the district’s reliance on an emergency levy and uncertainty from pending state legislation; board received the report and the forecast will guide upcoming budget decisions.
Terry, the district finance presenter, told the Little Miami Local Board of Education on May 20 that the district’s five-year forecast projects a 9.9% rise in full-time-equivalent students over 2025–2029 but a 25% increase in spending over the same period.
The forecast matters because the district relies heavily on local property-tax revenue and an emergency operating levy. “It is significant,” Terry said of the levy’s share of district revenue, and he warned that without the levy renewal the district’s fund balance projections turn sharply negative by 2028.
The presentation summarized key assumptions: enrollment shown as FTEs, a basic foundation amount of $8,114 per pupil in the state formula, a 27% increase in property valuations from the county reappraisal, projected medical insurance premium increases, and a continuing state funding structure called the Fair School Funding Plan.
Terry said the forecast shows the district’s ending fund balance falling from an estimated $27 million in 2025 to roughly $12–18 million in later years with the emergency levy included, but turning deeply negative without a successful renewal. He noted the forecast is a working document that will change as the state budget and pending legislation become final. “These are working documents,” he said, adding that pending bills in Columbus could change the district’s outlook “by millions.”
Board member comments emphasized growth and the limits of the state funding guarantee, which Terry described as a fixed-dollar guarantee anchored to fiscal year 2020 levels. He explained that, because Little Miami is a growing district, the guarantee causes state aid to decline as local capacity rises, leaving the district to cover much of the cost of new students.
Superintendent Bobby placed the forecast in context of operations and said the district had added students and facilities without requesting additional operating funds since 2011. Board members asked for follow-up presentations after the state budget is finalized and for clarification about FTE versus headcount in the enrollment assumptions.
Action and next steps: the forecast was presented for the board’s review and will be updated after the state budget and pending property-tax legislation are finalized. The presentation also framed the upcoming public discussion about the renewal of an emergency levy that the treasurer said is vital to operations.
Ending: The board did not adopt new operating tax measures at the meeting; the treasurer said staff will return with updated forecasts and that the district will continue to monitor state legislation and valuation changes that could materially alter the five-year outlook.
