Treasury, House Fiscal Agency and Senate Fiscal Agency principals adopted a consensus revenue forecast at the May 20 CREC meeting that reduces general fund-general purpose revenue compared with the January consensus while modestly increasing school aid fund receipts.

"The consensus revenue forecast you have before you, reduces general fund general purpose revenue, in each of the 3 years from what we agreed to in January," Treasury representative Eric Buses told the conference as he presented the draft agreement.

Under the consensus numbers presented and approved by voice vote, the general fund was revised downward by about $221 million in fiscal 2025 and by roughly $363 million and $400 million in fiscal 2026 and 2027, respectively, compared with the January CREC figures. The school aid fund was revised up by about $85 million in 2025 and roughly $40 million in each of 2026 and 2027; on net the combined GF+SAF forecast was reduced in each year.

Conference staff noted reasons for the change: higher-than-expected income-tax refunds in April (including a larger Homestead Property Tax Credit and expanded Earned Income Tax Credit refunds), stronger withholding because some taxpayers did not reduce withholding after rate changes, and weaker-than-expected sales-and-use tax growth year to date. Treasury also reported a calculation that, under the consensus, the Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) would have a possible payout of up to $538.5 million in fiscal 2026 under the statutory test (a payout would require legislative action).

CREC principals voted to adopt the consensus agreement by voice vote. The agreement, including the income-rate trigger required by MCL 206.511, will be posted on michigan.gov/crec and will inform the executive and legislative budget processes.