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Cabinet warns enrollment could fall to about 3,300; district outlines family outreach and retention measures
Summary
District finance and instructional staff told the board they will use conservative enrollment forecasts for FY26 — possibly down to 3,300 students — and described outreach to families affected by recent school closures, surveys, and exit‑interview practices to understand and mitigate withdrawals.
The governing board heard updated enrollment projections and outreach efforts on May 13 as administrators prepared the FY 2025–26 budget. Dr. Pletnick and Dr. Jensen told the board they will take a conservative approach to next year’s revenue forecasts and are preparing contingency plans for lower enrollment.
Forecast: Dr. Pletnick said preliminary projections used for the FY 2025–26 proposed budget will be conservative and that district headcount could fall from roughly 3,800 students to as low as about 3,300 next year, depending on final roll‑forward counts and the effects of two school closures. He warned that if actual enrollment is lower than budgeted, the district could face a revenue shortfall that would require drawing on carryforward or making mid‑year reductions.
Retention and outreach: Dr. Jensen and other cabinet members described measures the district is taking to reach families: surveys sent to families affected by school closures, follow‑up phone calls where families requested them, assignment codes in the student information system to indicate next year’s campus choices, principal outreach to families, and targeted follow-ups when families request contact. Dr. Jensen said principals and cabinet staff will review individual withdrawal cases and conduct “case study” reviews after students depart to identify trends and opportunities to improve retention.
Why it matters: Enrollment determines state funding (the ADM/revenue control limit), so significant declines can materially reduce operating revenue and force program or staffing changes. Board members emphasized the need for clear, specific communication back to families and for the cabinet to include board members in updates when parents raise concerns and request follow‑up.
Public concerns linked: Board members and staff acknowledged that some families cited safety, bullying or administrative responses when they withdrew students. The district said it follows up on closure surveys and individual withdrawal surveys and that staff attempt to contact families who requested outreach; some families asked not to be repeatedly contacted. Administrators said they will review withdrawal data and exit interviews and report trends to the board.
Ending: Staff will present a conservative FY 2025–26 enrollment and revenue forecast with the proposed budget in two weeks and continue to report on withdrawal reasons, outreach efforts and any identified patterns at future meetings.
