Economists say Trump tariff regime marks lasting shift; uncertainty clouds near-term outlook

Summary

In a webinar presentation, economist Robert Spendlove described the Trump administration's tariff strategy as a multi-layered, likely persistent change to U.S. trade policy that could raise average import tariffs from historic lows to a new range (roughly 10—15%), while increasing economic uncertainty and dividing public views.

Robert Spendlove, senior economist with Cyence Bank, told attendees of an online webinar that the Trump administration's trade policies represent a fundamental shift in U.S. economic strategy and could leave tariffs higher than they have been in decades.

Spendlove said the administration's approach breaks into several components and — even if renegotiations lower some rates — he does not expect a return to the pre-tariff era of near-zero average import duties. "I do not see it going back to 3%. We're we're not going back to a a low or 0 tariff world in the near future," Spendlove said.

The webinar presenter said the administration uses layered tariff "buckets": a baseline global sales-tax-style tariff, a trade-war layer (notably with China), reciprocal country-by-country tariffs, regional exemptions tied to agreements such as USMCA, and national-security measures for critical minerals and semiconductors. He cited a recent revision from the Yale Budget Lab placing the…

Economists say Trump tariff regime marks lasting shift; uncertainty clouds near-term outlook

Summary

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