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Vermont vehicle sales lag national surge; electric-vehicle share falls short of state target
Summary
Industry analyst Matt Coda told the House Transportation Committee that Vermont’s new-vehicle registrations were down year-to-date through April versus 2024, EV share is steady near 8% and the state is unlikely to meet the 35% EV delivery target in model-year 2026 without changes.
Matt Coda, a market analyst who identified himself to the House Committee on Transportation as presenting on behalf of Meadow Del and Vermont BMW dealers, told lawmakers on May 8 that national new-vehicle sales jumped in April but Vermont did not match that surge.
Coda said the national increase was “nearly an 8% increase in new car sales in the month of April,” driven in part by dealers and manufacturers selling pre-tariff inventory. He said Vermont’s registrations through the first four months of 2025 were down about 13% compared with the same period in 2024 and that January 2024 was an “anomaly” that makes year-to-date comparisons look worse.
Why it matters: Vermont’s vehicle sales and the mix of vehicle powertrains affect both greenhouse-gas emissions and revenue for the state’s transportation and education funds, because purchase-and-use tax receipts depend on vehicle transactions.
Most important details
Coda reported that battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) comprised about 8% of new-vehicle registrations in Vermont through April 2025, roughly the same share as in the first four months of 2024. He revised a prior forecast, saying, “I had predicted 14% by the end of the year … I revised that to say that’s 12 and a half percent. I don’t think we’re gonna get to 14% by the end of the year.”
Coda told the committee the state’s adopted rule (referred to in testimony as the California-derived Advanced Clean Cars standard, “ACC 2”) requires 35% of vehicles delivered in model year 2026 to be battery electric or plug-in hybrids. “Absent something happening outside of the borders of Vermont, we’re on track to get to 12 and a half percent battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which is a problem when you consider that the ACC 2 rule requires 35,” he said.
Coda also highlighted a separate concern for medium- and heavy-duty trucks. He said Vermont had “32 battery electric class 2b through class 8 trucks” and that meeting climate goals for heavy vehicles would require thousands more: “We need to get to about 9,200 by the end of the decade,” he testified, citing figures he said came from climate-council work.
Supply and tariffs
Coda attributed part of the April national surge to buying of vehicles already in U.S. ports before tariffs could be applied. He said tariffs could ultimately “add between $2,000 to $12,000 to a vehicle when and if they take effect.” He warned dealers face uncertainty because manufacturers and models will be affected unevenly and because dealers must decide now what inventory to stock while rules and tariffs remain unsettled.
Dealer and workforce impacts
Committee members asked about effects on dealers. Coda said reduced allocations from manufacturers or fees under ACC 2 could lead dealers to get fewer gasoline vehicles and would be a heavier burden on small, single-store dealers than on large groups. He said reduced allocations would reduce staffing needs at dealerships: “If you’re used to getting a hundred vehicles, and now you’re only gonna get 50 … you probably need about half the sales staff.”
What lawmakers asked and what remained open
Representatives asked about causes for 2024’s strong months, the split between plug-in hybrids and full battery-electric models by manufacturer (Toyota sells more PHEVs; Tesla sells only BEVs), and whether incentives affect sales. Coda answered that incentives are one factor but not the only one; local charger access, housing and workplace charging, and vehicle affordability are major constraints.
No formal committee action followed the briefing; the session moved on to bill work. Coda offered to provide the committee the underlying spreadsheet of monthly registrations and additional breakdowns by vehicle class and plug-in vs. full battery-electric if members wanted the data.
Ending
Committee members said they would weigh the sales data and the uncertainties from tariffs and manufacturer allocations as the legislature considers transportation revenues and the state’s vehicle electrification rules going forward.
