Nantucket Trust hears data, budget scenarios for ‘At Least to Locals’ rental-incentive program

Colin, a program representative, told the Nantucket Affordable Housing Trust on May 6 that the town’s “at least to locals” incentive program is meeting steady demand but will become more expensive if continued year after year.

The presentation to the Trust laid out unit-size and household-size breakdowns, prior property use, retention estimates and several budget scenarios projecting that renewing year‑1 participants and adding a new cohort would push total incentives near $560,000 under one forecast. Colin said, “our ask would be, assuming that we wanted to do something around this, bring the ask up to 550,000 for year 3, with remain or another private source covering a hundred thousand,” and proposed a step‑down renewal structure (50% for second‑year renewals, 25% for a third year) to boost retention.

Trust members said the data were useful but asked for specific unit counts, clearer definitions of categories and additional breakdowns — for example adult versus nonadult household members and the number of wage earners per unit — before taking any funding vote.

Colin described three headline data sets the presenters returned to the Trust: a breakdown of participating unit sizes by program year, household-size distributions by unit and a summary of what properties were used for before joining the program (seasonal rentals, primary residences, empty units, etc.). He told the Trust staff are seeing a mix of unit sizes and household types rather than a program skewed only to large or only to small homes.

On retention, Colin said the program is seeing about a 75% renewal rate from year 1 into year 2 and that retention assumptions would likely fall for a third year (he used an illustrative 65% third‑year retention in the budget scenarios). The presentation included a projection that renewing roughly 75% of year‑1 properties would cost about $132,000 and that adding an estimated 24 new properties between September 2025 and August 2026 would bring the cumulative tenants housed to about 98 under the forecast used in the slide deck.

Administrators flagged two budget constraints for trustees to consider: the program’s incentive dollars are the primary ask of the Affordable Housing Trust, while the administrative side is not currently requested of the Trust and is expected to be supported privately or through existing town capacity. Colin said private funding already covered roughly 20% of last year’s incentives and that the program team would pursue private contributions again if trustees wanted to lower the Trust’s share.

Trust members asked for specific follow-ups. Trustee Tom Dixon asked how other towns determined a program’s “saturation point”; Colin cited Truckee’s multi‑year rollout and Provincetown’s expectation that new construction would reduce reliance on incentives in coming years. Colin and staff agreed to provide written answers to the questions raised at the meeting and to return with clearer unit counts and adult-versus-child breakdowns.

No formal funding motion was made at the May 6 meeting. Colin asked the Trust for an early signal on whether it wanted staff to prepare a formal funding request this summer, saying homeowners often make decisions months in advance and that an early indication of support helps homeowner recruitment and planning.

Trust staff said they will circulate the written follow‑ups and budget scenarios and will advise on next steps for a possible formal request to the Trust in a future meeting.