Emeryville study session projects $9.7M to $14.6M five‑year general fund shortfall; council told to consider reserves, revenue measures, cuts

A Regional Government finance consultant told the Emeryville City Council on Monday that an updated five‑year general fund forecast shows a projected deficit of about $9.7 million in the next fiscal year growing to roughly $14.6 million by year five, and that the city will need a mix of one‑time reserves, new revenue and likely program or staffing reductions to close the gap.

"The projected deficit in the general fund has continued to get worse," Brian Mora said, citing a range from "$9,700,000 deficit next year all the way up to ... $14,600,000 in the fifth year." Mora presented an updated five‑year model and described factors behind the deterioration, including lower development fees, reduced sales tax, unexpected Social Security payments tied to an IRS settlement and higher labor costs.

Why it matters: Emeryville is in the second year of a two‑year budget cycle and the council will begin formal budget hearings and ballot‑measure planning this year. Mora emphasized that one‑time windfalls such as recent property transfer taxes can strengthen the near‑term balance but do not solve structural shortfalls.

Mora told the council that the city finished the 2023–25 budget cycle with larger deficits than first projected: the 2023–24 year closed about $2 million worse than expected and the current year shows an $8.8 million deficit…