Consultants give land‑capacity update: College Place must plan for ~1,504 housing units and has 1,243 units in pipeline

Consultants from JUB Engineers and city planning staff updated the council on the land‑capacity analysis and urban growth area (UGA) work that will inform the comprehensive plan update due in 2026.

Justin of JUB Engineers summarized the county‑level methodology and the numbers being used for the analysis. Consultants and county staff used the 2010–2020 census growth to project a countywide population to 2046; Justin reported the countywide total used in the methodology was 73,112 and that College Place’s allocated share represents a projected population increase of roughly 3,432 people for a total College Place population of about 13,341 by 2046. The Department of Commerce’s new housing tool requires jurisdictions to plan by income category; the consultants said the total future housing units the city must plan for is 1,504.

Justin and city staff said the city currently has approximately 1,243 housing units in the pipeline (projects at various stages of review and entitlement). They summarized how pipeline projects factor into the land‑capacity analysis and noted Stone Creek (a master planned development) is proposed to include roughly 513 multifamily units, 265 multiplex units and 64 single‑family units in its current proposal.

The consultants described the land‑capacity methodology: inventory of vacant, partially used and underutilized parcels; removal of public lands, easements and critical areas; adjustments for market factors and infrastructure needs; and conversion of developable acreage into likely unit counts. Their interim results show available developable acreage but also indicate a shortfall in multifamily capacity relative to the state housing allocation; staff and consultants said the numeric shortfall will be refined as pipeline assumptions and market factors are adjusted. Council members and staff discussed potential UGA adjustments — including swaps that remove low‑development‑potential pockets and add higher‑potential acreage elsewhere — and noted UGA expansion applications are due to the county by July 1.

Justin cautioned that pipeline timelines are uncertain and that some projects (Stone Creek, lands south of Martin Airfield) could build out over many years. Staff emphasized the county adopted the land‑capacity methodology recently and the city will continue to refine the analysis and present results to the planning commission and council in coming months. No final UGA boundaries were adopted at the workshop; staff said they will return with more detailed maps, legends and refined unit estimates.