Enrollment projections: district expects elementary decline and secondary growth; Glacier Creek surge noted

Assistant Superintendent Jared Rosing told the board April 7 that enrollment projections for the coming year show continuing elementary declines and growth at the secondary level, with open-enrollment movement and new housing developments affecting final counts.

Rosing said the district’s planning uses the Jan. second-Friday count and projections prepared with Applied Population and internal spreadsheets. He said the district currently projects a drop of roughly 110 K–4 sections but an increase of six secondary sections; overall the staff projection showed a net decrease in “butts-in-seats” of about 99 students, though open-enrollment applications could add as many as 181 students and change the net outcome.

Rosing highlighted notable local shifts: Glacier Creek’s fifth-grade cohort is projected to rise to about 278 students, up from about 206 this year — an increase that will add sections at that school. He said 4K and kindergarten projections are harder to predict because full‑day 4K planning and census variability make accurate counts uncertain.

Rosing said the district is not planning new open‑enrollment intake at the high-school level because the high school is near its target size (about 600 or more, per the presentation). He added that Sauk Trail offers smaller-class‑size programming tied to an achievement-gap reduction program and that Cromery will add sections across grade levels.

Board members asked about housing affordability and birth-rate trends as drivers of enrollment. Rosing said housing cost and lower birth rates post‑COVID are factors the district and local municipalities are watching; he noted potential changes if new housing comes online or families move into district homes.

No vote was taken on enrollment projections; staff said they will continue to update the board monthly and use projections for staffing and budget planning.