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Demographer warns Haverford enrollment likely to decline as 2016–2020 cohort matures; birth rates, housing turnover cited
Summary
Dr. Tim Lambert presented 10-year enrollment projections showing a decline driven by lower live births and a large cohort born mid‑decade; the analysis highlights neighborhood variation and a rising in-district special education caseload.
Dr. Tim Lambert, the consultant presenting the district’s updated enrollment projections on April 24, told the Haverford Township School District Board of Directors that the district should expect overall enrollment to fall as a larger birth cohort from about 2016–2020 moves through the system and lower live births in subsequent years produce smaller kindergarten classes.
“This is actually the third time I’m coming to your school district to look at your enrollment projections,” Dr. Lambert said. He explained the methodology used to generate the projections: live births by municipality, grade‑to‑grade transition rates, neighborhood spatial analysis and new‑student inflows across the district’s five elementary catchments.
Key findings and context
- Live births: Dr. Lambert said live births for the district have hovered around 600 in recent years; the district’s projections use a roughly 600-birth baseline…
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