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JFO presents foundation-formula modeling using Colby & Baker weights; three scenarios show different regional winners and losers
Summary
Joint Fiscal Office analyst Ezra Holden briefed the committee on modeling that applies Colby & Baker weights to a constrained FY25 education payment of $1.88 billion. The presentation compared three scenarios (house weights constrained to $1.88B; add secondary-grade weights; and add grade weights while restricting a sparsity tier). JFO used VSBA
The Joint Fiscal Office presented alternative foundation-formula models that apply weights developed by researchers Colby and Baker to Vermont data and to three constrained spending scenarios. JFO framed the exercise as modeling choices rather than a policy recommendation.
"These estimates are only designed to reflect how different base and weight decisions would affect funding if we stuck to that $1.88 billion education payment," Ezra Holden of JFO said during the presentation. Holden said the models assume the committee wants to hold the total education payment at fiscal year 2025 levels while varying how the base and weights allocate those dollars.
Nut graf: the briefing showed how choices about student weights(for poverty, English-language learners, small/sparse schools and secondary grades) shift funding among regions. Holding the total pool constant magnifies distributional effects: increasing one weighting category reduces the money available to others…
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