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State child‑data project finds absenteeism, juvenile‑justice contact and school mobility top predictors of 4‑year graduation
Summary
The Oregon Child Integrated Dataset (OCID) presented to the Ways and Means subcommittee showed that severe chronic absenteeism, juvenile justice contact and frequent school transitions strongly predict lower four‑year high‑school graduation rates for the 2020 cohort.
Pam Curtis, director of the Center for Evidence Based Policy at OHSU, told the Joint Committee on Ways and Means Subcommittee on Education on April 23 that analysis from the Oregon Child Integrated Dataset identifies several strong predictors of four‑year high‑school graduation.
“We essentially have information from children, born in the state of Oregon since 02/2001 up until the present, integrated across the experiences they have in five different state agencies,” said Pam Curtis, who described governance for the dataset and the governance committee that directs analyses. She said the dataset offers a longitudinal view for policy makers.
Curtis said the governance committee directed an analysis of the graduating class of 2020. The committee identified three top predictors of failure to graduate on time across student groups: severe chronic absenteeism (defined by the Oregon Department of Education as missing 20 percent or more of school), juvenile justice contact, and school mobility. Foster‑care experience was cited as the fourth predictor.
Curtis told the committee that the statewide 4‑year graduation rate for the 2020 class was 81 percent. Students who experienced severe chronic absenteeism had a 4‑year graduation rate of 51 percent, about 30 percentage points below the statewide average. Students who experienced one district or school transition had a 4‑year graduation rate of 74 percent compared with 84 percent for students with no transitions. Midyear transitions were substantially more disruptive than summer transitions, Curtis said; students with three or more midyear transitions were nearly twice as likely not to graduate as students with no transitions.
Curtis said foster youth commonly experience mobility: 94 percent of foster youth had experienced mobility during K–12, and they were twice as likely to experience district‑to‑district transitions. The governance committee asked for additional analyses and Curtis said her office would provide slides and written testimony for the record.
Committee members asked to have the materials submitted as testimony so all members could review the detailed slides, and the presenter agreed to file the slides and additional documentation for the record.
