Oregon Department of Energy briefs committee on state energy strategy, modeling and stakeholder process

Oregon Department of Energy staff on April 21 briefed the Senate Committee on Energy and Environment on progress developing the Oregon Energy Strategy, a statutorily required planning document to identify pathways for meeting the state's energy and greenhouse gas goals.

Jessica Rikers, manager of the technology and policy team at the Oregon Department of Energy, told the committee the strategy is directed by the 2023 Legislature in House Bill 3630 and will draw on technical modeling, stakeholder engagement and several targeted analyses. "The strategy will identify pathways that help the state achieve its energy objectives," she said, and noted energy consumption and production account for a large share of the state's greenhouse gas emissions.

The department contracted with the Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) for modeling and with Evolved Energy Research for energy-system modeling and economic analysis. Edith Bayer, senior energy policy analyst and the strategy team lead, described modeling that spans electricity, transportation, natural gas and other fuels out to 2050. She emphasized the model is not a utility integrated resource plan but an economy-wide tool to show trade-offs among policy pathways.

Bayer summarized four cross-cutting takeaways used to inform policy discussions: high levels of heat-pump adoption and energy efficiency can cut building energy use substantially; transportation electrification reduces energy demand and lowers decarbonization costs; solar and onshore wind were frequently chosen by the model as least-cost new resources while hydropower remains important; and new transmission and in-state generation will be needed to meet growing loads.

The department also described complementary analyses: an "energy wallet" study comparing five sample households that found electric vehicles and heat pumps often lower operating costs for households (results vary by fuel prices and home characteristics); an air-quality analysis linking scenario outcomes to health benefits; and an upcoming job study, due in July, that will estimate energy-sector job impacts through 2050.

Staff said the modeling included scenarios that allowed hydrogen production and, in regional runs, small modular reactors outside Oregon; the department did not model nuclear generation sited within Oregon to remain consistent with current state law. Edith Bayer said enhanced geothermal appeared in some model pathways but emphasized model outputs are directional and not commitments to build specific resources.

The department described stakeholder outreach: tribal consultation, an advisory group, an interagency steering group and five technical and policy working groups that include over 100 experts. Draft policy recommendations are expected to be published for public comment in early June, with a second draft in August and a final strategy due to the Legislature on Nov. 1.

Committee members asked about nuclear energy, offshore wind costs and grid-enhancing technologies. Staff said the model allowed certain technologies to compete in regional runs, reconductoring was modeled and played a significant role in adding capacity, and that detailed study of grid-enhancing technologies would require more granular analysis. On hydrogen, staff said the model explicitly assessed hydrogen production scenarios and their complementarity with renewable generation profiles.

Staff invited legislators to request further studies and said the department views the strategy as an iterative resource to inform near-term policy choices as longer-term technologies evolve.