Seattle forecast office adopts pessimistic outlook; April update trims revenues and flags uncertainty from tariffs and markets

Seattle City CouncilFinance, Native Communities and Tribal Governments Committee Chair Dan Strauss opened a briefing on April 16, 2025, saying the Forecast Council had adopted a pessimistic economic outlook and that "this is not the news we wanted, and it could be much worse." The Office of Economic and Revenue Forecast (OERF) presented revised projections for 2025 and 2026 driven by recent tariff proposals, market volatility and weaker-than-expected collections in key tax bases.

The committee was briefed on three primary inputs: national economic scenarios (including March S&P Global forecasts), 2024 actual revenue collections and regional adjustments for Seattle. Yon Duras, interim director and chief economist at OERF, said the forecast council approved the pessimistic March scenario as Seattle's official April baseline because recent policy developments raised the risk of a larger downturn. Duras and other OERF and City Budget Office staff described heightened policy uncertainty after April 2 tariff announcements and a 90-day pause that left a wide range of possible tariff outcomes.

Why it matters: the April forecast lowers near-term revenue expectations and will feed into the mayors proposal and council budget work. Forecast staff noted two more formal updates are scheduled before final action: an August forecast that will inform the mayors proposal and an October…