Joint Fiscal Office: Vermont revenues track near targets through March; tariffs, consumer confidence and tourism pose risks

Patrick Titterton, senior fiscal analyst at the Joint Fiscal Office, told the House Appropriations Committee on April 18 that Vermont’s major state funds were largely tracking near their January consensus revenue targets through March but warned of several downside risks that could affect collections later in the fiscal year.

Titterton said the general fund had collected about $1.7 billion through March, the education fund just under $600 million, and the transportation (T) fund roughly $230 million. He noted the April remittances are typically the most important month for revenue and that some shortfalls in March — especially in DMV fees and purchase-and-use tax collections — may reflect timing issues rather than permanent declines.

His presentation outlined the composition of each fund and why those compositions matter for volatility. “Over half of the general fund is coming from personal income tax,” Titterton said, which makes that fund sensitive to changes in income and employment. He added that, taken together, income and corporate taxes represent about two-thirds of general fund revenue. For the education fund, he said sales-and-use tax receipts are the largest non-property-tax contributor and account for the bulk of those non-property revenues.

Titterton described an estate-tax windfall this fiscal year: the state has collected about $43 million in estate taxes through March, he said, and…