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Committee told March transportation revenues fell about $2.9 million short of forecast
Summary
Legislative staff presented March collections for the Transportation Fund and the smaller TIB fund, showing a $2.9 million monthly shortfall and a roughly $2.3 million year-to-date deficit against the January forecast; staff encouraged continued monthly monitoring and noted final year totals will be trued up in June.
Logan Mover, a member of the Joint Fiscal Office staff, told the Joint Fiscal Committee on April 15 that March collections for the state Transportation Fund came in below the January consensus forecast by roughly $2.9 million for the month and about $2.3 million year to date.
“This is where every month I’ll sort of update these,” Mover said, describing a set of four monthly spreadsheet reports posted on the General Assembly website that break transportation receipts into gasoline and diesel taxes, purchase-and-use taxes, motor vehicle fees and other taxes and fees.
Mover said most major revenue categories in March were below target; diesel was the lone category above forecast for that month. He told the committee that the cumulative year-to-date shortfall was roughly 1 percent below the forecast target. The committee was also shown a 12-month rolling view that compares revenue over the past year; that view showed many categories up year over year even while they remain below the forecast.
Committee members pressed staff about likely causes. Mover said monthly variation can reflect reporting timing — for example, some collections or reporting can be delayed and show up in later months — or could reflect changes in activity such as fewer vehicle purchases, which reduce purchase-and-use tax and motor vehicle fees. He cautioned that one month does not define a trend and that the committee should monitor coming months to see whether the shortfall is made up.
The Joint Fiscal Office materials also break out the smaller Transportation Infrastructure Bank (TIB) fund. Mover said the TIB fund was down by about 15.5 percent in March, roughly $250,000, and that TIB calculations are presented in the same format but with fewer revenue sources.
On forecasting cadence, Mover explained that the official consensus revenue forecast is typically updated twice a year, in January and July, unless the Executive Board or the governor calls a re-consensus forecast. He said June is the month when accounts are trued up and actual final numbers are known after closeout activity.
A committee member flagged earlier legislation that raised certain motor vehicle fees and asked why receipts had not reached expected levels. Mover said the fee increases are still working their way into collections and that the office planned to spend more time tracking DMV fee activity and registration counts to understand whether collections will reach the levels assumed in the law and the forecast.
The packet Mover described includes a summary page, an at-a-glance chart of monthly and year-to-date totals, an Excel worksheet that estimates gallons taxed by working backward from fixed portions of the gasoline and diesel tax, and a details file with time series going back decades. “That is it. Those are the 4 documents that will be updated every month,” he said.
The committee did not take formal action on the revenue report Thursday; members were advised to continue monthly oversight and to raise questions if subsequent months show continuing divergence from the forecast.
Votes at a glance: none — the presentation was informational only.
