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County economist projects continued GRT and property‑tax growth but warns tariffs add uncertainty
Summary
Dr. Minghao Li presented multiple ARIMA-based forecasts showing continued local growth in gross receipts tax (GRT) and property-tax revenues; he recommended using a range of scenarios and regular updates because national tariff-driven changes create uncertain local effects.
Dr. Minghao Li, an associate professor and the Robert O. Anderson endowed chair at New Mexico State University, told Doña Ana County commissioners on April 15 that statistical forecasts based on historical data point to continuing growth in the county's gross receipts tax (GRT) and property-tax revenues.
Li said the study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series models and tested 54 specifications; he reported results as a range and highlighted an average of the top 20 models and the state’s CRAC model for comparison. “These forecasts are based on historical trends,” Li said, adding that the models do not account for policy changes such as tariffs.
The county’s GRT and property‑tax revenues together made up a substantial share of total county revenue in fiscal 2024 (about 21% and 19%,…
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