College Place planners map growth: analysis finds need for 1,504 new housing units, proposes UGA shifts

College Place planning commissioners on Thursday reviewed an updated comprehensive-plan periodic update and land-capacity analysis that applies a Department of Commerce housing allocation tool and county population forecasts to the city’s 2046 growth target.

Justin Baerwacker, a consultant with JUB, told the Planning Commission the update used Walla Walla County’s 2010–2020 growth rate and a countywide population projection to 2046. “We are using the growth rate from the ’20, between the 2010 and the 2020, census data for Wallowa County, which had a 0.64% growth,” Baerwacker said, and that rate was applied to generate the county’s 2046 projection and the city’s allocation.

The analysis assigns College Place roughly 18.2% of the county’s future population growth — about 3,500 additional residents of a countywide increase the consultant described as “10,000.” Using the Department of Commerce HAP tool and adjusted population inputs, Baerwacker said the city’s housing need increased in the model to 1,504 units (from the earlier estimate shown in the draft table). The consultant broke that need down by housing type: about 1,000 multifamily units, 234 multiplex units and 208 single-family units as minimum capacity to identify in the land-capacity analysis.

Why it matters: the HAP tool is the state Department of Commerce’s required method for this round of comprehensive-plan updates, and its outputs influence how much land cities must demonstrate can accommodate future housing. Baerwacker emphasized the HAP outputs show the zoning map must allow opportunities for the projected housing types; they do not guarantee market-driven development will occur.

At the parcel level, staff and the consultant are identifying developable acreage by discounting public lands, parcels with very low assessed improvements (less than $5,000), private roads, easements and critical areas. The team is also accounting for pipeline projects where developers already have lot counts and designs, so those parcels are handled differently than generic vacant land in the formula.

Commissioners and staff discussed several potential adjustments to the city’s urban growth area (UGA). Baerwacker and city staff identified candidate removals and additions: a southwest annexation area where owners previously requested deannexation (the owners signed an agreement limiting contesting reallocation), a 20‑acre band off Blaylock with narrow lots and existing improvements that staff say is unlikely to redevelop under current conditions, and several parcels north of College Avenue tied to a regional developer’s proposed residential expansion. The presentation also flagged a future school site south of town that the school district intends to serve with city utilities and a nearby parcel the district may use for extension programs.

City staff noted infrastructure constraints and planned projects tied to potential UGA decisions. The city’s wastewater treatment plant and an in‑design 2,000,000‑gallon elevated reservoir at the bluff top were cited as system elements that affect where growth can be served; the reservoir project is in design and staff said funding work is underway. Staff also reminded commissioners that UGA expansion or swap applications are due July 1.

Commissioners asked clarifying questions about how the HAP tool was developed and how pipeline projects are treated in the capacity calculations. Commissioner Nick Ivy summarized the difference in growth rates: “It looked like the county expects to grow 16, 16 almost 17% from 2020 to 2046,” while College Place’s share of growth in the consultant’s allocation is roughly double that rate.

The presentation and follow-up discussion did not approve any zoning changes or UGA amendments; staff said the county commissioners must review and approve the countywide inputs used in the analysis and that the city will pursue UGA amendment or swap applications only through the statutory process. The Planning Commission will receive further briefings and formal recommendations as the land‑capacity analysis is finalized and as staff prepares any UGA application materials for the July 1 deadline.

Votes at a glance: the meeting’s consent agenda — adoption of the May 15, 2025 agenda and the March 18, 2025 meeting minutes — was approved unanimously before the presentation.