Ford Analytics briefing highlights Sawyer County’s aging population, workforce squeeze and housing affordability gap

Dale Knapp, research director with Ford Analytics, told the Sawyer County Board of Supervisors that while the county has seen faster-than-average population growth since 2018, longer-term trends pose challenges for employers and public services.

Knapp said Sawyer County ranked seventh in the state for five-year population change from 2018–23 and fifth for county sales tax per capita, but noted persistent weaknesses including one of the higher poverty rates in Wisconsin and a relatively small prime working-age population. “I hope you use it,” Knapp told supervisors as he distributed the Ford Analytics briefing. “If you don’t like the numbers, figure out what you can do to make some changes,” he said.

Knapp highlighted several measures he said should concern county officials: an unemployment rate averaging 3.8% last year (above the statewide average he cited at about 3%), a low labor-force participation ranking, and a high share of residents aged 65 and older—approaching roughly 30% of the county population. He said the county’s 20–64 age cohort has grown faster than most counties since 2020 but remains small relative to peers. Using Department of Administration population projections, Knapp warned of a projected decline in the county’s prime working-age population and a rapid rise in residents aged 75 and older.

Housing affordability was a focus of the briefing. Knapp explained Ford Analytics’ metric comparing the affordability of homes on the market to the county median household income: “In February 2024, Sawyer County was at 62,” he said, meaning the median household had about 32% less income than required to afford the median home for sale. He attributed the change to a mix of income and sharply rising prices plus higher interest rates.

Knapp outlined potential responses discussed in other communities: direct incentives to attract new residents, down-payment or relocation assistance, partnerships with school districts to provide land for housing, and emerging programs that catalog local incentives for prospective movers. He noted some states and localities have experimented with cash incentives and “human TIF” arrangements that redirect income-tax receipts to recruit and retain residents.

Board members asked follow-up questions about model programs and local policy options; Knapp said many successful efforts begin at the municipal or county level and often involve public-private partnerships. County staff and board members tied the data to upcoming strategic planning and budgeting decisions, noting the presentation’s relevance to housing, economic development and senior services planning.

The presentation was delivered as part of the board’s packet materials supporting the county’s strategic planning work. Knapp said Ford Analytics can provide deeper, county-specific data on request.