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Panelists: October 7 attack altered Middle East balance; Iran’s network weakened but negotiations continue
Summary
Speakers at the Hinckley Forum said the October 7 attack and subsequent military actions reshaped regional power balances, weakening Iran’s influence in some theaters while accelerating U.S.-Iran negotiations. Analysts noted continued risks and a narrow set of negotiation issues: nuclear activity, ballistic missiles and proxy support.
At a Hinckley Forum at the University of Utah, panelists described a changed strategic balance in the Middle East since October 7, 2023 and outlined the central issues that U.S. negotiators and regional states still face.
Aaron Pilkington, a U.S. Air Force analyst in Middle East affairs, summarized shifts he said were visible following the Israel–Hamas war that began October 7, 2023. “Iran is losing hard,” Pilkington said during the discussion, arguing that the campaign of strikes by Israel and retaliatory exchanges exposed weaknesses in elements of Iran’s regional network and in some Iranian air defenses. Pilkington attributed the shift to a sequence of targeted strikes and counterstrikes across the region and said those operations changed how state and nonstate actors calculate risk.
Pilkington identified three core negotiation topics that have historically separated Iran from the United States and Israel: Iran’s nuclear program and intentions, Iran’s theater ballistic missile capabilities, and Iran’s support for regional proxy groups. He said attempts to negotiate on all three topics together had occurred in limited windows of recent history but were uncommon; the most viable multilateral agreement in recent years, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), focused narrowly on the nuclear issue.
Panelists discussed how earlier U.S. policy choices shaped later negotiation stances. Pilkington said that after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran’s posture and proxy activity escalated in ways that complicated later diplomacy. He also traced how the assassination of senior Iranian-linked security figures and subsequent missile and drone exchanges altered deterrence dynamics in the region.
On diplomacy, Pilkington noted ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and said Gulf states still consider normalization with Israel strategically attractive but cautious about timing given the regional security environment. Several audience questions focused on the prospects for Gaza reconstruction, normalization between Gulf states and Israel, and whether the weakening of certain actors creates an opening for negotiated outcomes; panelists said uncertainty remains and no firm peace plan emerged from the discussion.
No formal policy commitments or votes came out of the forum; the session was an expert discussion and audience Q&A.
