Roseville staff present updated housing needs assessment; EDA asked to receive report

Janice Dunlach, community development director, told the Roseville Economic Development Authority on April 14 that the presentation was "sort of the last step of the housing needs assessment" the city began late last year. The study, completed for the city by Stantec, updated a 2018 forecast and staff recommended the EDA receive the consultant—s final report and post interactive web materials summarizing findings.

The report reduced the 2018 forecasted totals but still identified continuing needs across several product types. Stantec—s update described a demand for roughly 350 market-rate rental units over the next 10 years — about 250 general-occupancy rental units and 100 senior rental units — plus a continued shortfall of about 100 general-occupancy affordable rental units. The study also identified a need for roughly 80 ownership units split across product types (about 15 senior ownership units, 10 single-family units, and roughly 20 multifamily/townhome units). Staff emphasized these figures are a snapshot driven by Metropolitan Council household forecasts, recent five-year production, income assumptions and the city—s limited developable land.

Janice Dunlach and Gian Kelsey, the city—s housing and economic development program manager, outlined how Roseville—s existing programs fit into the response. The city continues to operate home‑ownership loan products under prior HRA levy funds, a community land trust that preserves affordability for 99 years, outstanding Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) loan balances, and an EDA small business loan program. Staff said the city currently holds nearly $2.2 million in outstanding repayable loan balances for housing programs, not counting community land trust holdings, and that the EDA also shows a $212,000 balance of local affordable housing aid derived from the recent housing sales tax enacted by the legislature.

Joel Kemp, economic development coordinator, described planned public outreach and data tools. "Our plan for disseminating this information in addition to just the static report is to kind of leverage the approach we've used in the past," Kemp said, and showed a web-based story map and interactive dashboard planned for the city and Grow Roseville sites. Kemp said the tools will include links to city programs such as home improvement loans and will be mobile-friendly.

Staff stressed that the presentation was informational. Dunlach said staff were not yet asking for policy decisions or funding commitments at the meeting, but noted the EDA and council will need to discuss how to spend the local affordable housing aid (LAHA) in coming months. "The law is very specific on how we can spend it but how we have to report on it and how the law's interpreted will make a big difference on what kind of recommendations we bring forward," Dunlach said. Staff said the city received its first LAHA payment late last year, expects Minnesota Housing to publish reporting guidance soon, and believes its first report on spending will be due in December 2025; they added communities generally must spend the funds within three to four years of receipt.

Several forecast caveats were repeated during the presentation: Roseville is largely built out, so land supply limits what can be produced; new household formation can be met by turnover, not only by new construction (the "life-cycle continuum"); and standard housing-affordability assumptions in the study assume households spend no more than 30 percent of income on housing even though many households presently are cost-burdened. Staff also noted senior housing product types currently show higher vacancy rates in some regional examples and that two Twin Cities assisted-living properties are closing for low occupancy.

On programs and strategy, staff summarized three strategy buckets from the consultant: production, preservation and capacity building. Examples cited included accessory dwelling unit allowances, rent‑restricted affordable apartments, a land trust partnership with Habitat, tenant-notification rules, rental licensing and a recent affordable housing trust fund created to receive housing sales tax proceeds. Staff said some strategies are already in use in Roseville and that the EDA—s prioritization exercise showed alignment on several approaches but was not direction to program resources.

Dunlach asked the EDA to receive and accept the final Stantec report so staff could proceed with web publication and next steps in analysis. The transcript records staff recommendation and discussion but does not record a formal EDA vote to receive the report during the excerpt of the meeting provided.

If the EDA receives the report formally in a subsequent action, staff said they will return with proposed objectives, implementation steps and, when ready, programmatic recommendations for LAHA spending after Minnesota Housing issues reporting guidance.