Retail recruiters tell Caroline County growth could support a new grocery but timelines are long

Michael Warsaw, portfolio director for retail recruitment firm Veil Strategies, told the Caroline County Board of Supervisors on March 25 that the county’s growth and consumer trade area point to an opportunity for a general‑market grocer, but cautioned that retailers take years to approve and build new stores.

Veil Strategies presented mobile‑device and trade‑area data showing a drive‑time consumer base larger than the county’s municipal population and a market “gap” in retail spending. "There is a gap or a leakage of approximately $264,000,000 from that CTA," Warsaw said, referring to the consumer trade area; he said grocery is a central target despite what he called a misleading data subset that currently understates grocery demand in Caroline County.

The consultants outlined a recruitment strategy that focuses first on mid‑market grocers — Kroger, Aldi, Walmart Neighborhood Market and similar chains — which typically seek sites of roughly 3–12 acres and average store footprints in the 40,000–55,000 square‑foot range. Warsaw said those “general grocers” usually want a minimum trade‑area population of about 30,000–50,000 and prefer sites within a 10–15 minute drive of customers. He urged county staff to keep pushing housing growth and to get retailers to “hop off the interstate” to visit local sites.

Warsaw described how retailers evaluate deals: long corporate approval processes driven by average unit volume goals, real‑estate committee reviews and site visits. "The average timeline for a new store is about three years," he said, and grocery projects — because of their higher construction and refrigeration costs — can take substantially longer, sometimes five years or more and "in rare cases… a decade."

Board members asked how Caroline could compete against larger markets. Warsaw and Jimmy Pritchett, Veil’s retail development associate, said the county’s selling points are rapid housing growth, strong traffic corridors and coordinated local outreach to broker relationships with corporate real‑estate teams. Warsaw recommended presenting improved, corrected data and more “blue dots” (evidence of population density and retail activity) on recruitment maps.

The presentation closed with concrete suggestions for county actions: track housing growth and incomes, improve public data available to retailers, identify and market ‘‘home‑run’’ retail sites with good visibility and parking, and recruit intermediate retail categories (clinic/“doc‑in‑a‑box,” dental/vision, etc.) that can both serve residents and strengthen the case for grocers.

Veil Strategies’ presentation was informational; the board did not take formal action. Several board members thanked the consultants and asked staff to follow up on timing and the firm’s specific prospect list.