District staff present enrollment trends and costs of two new schools; residential growth continues but birth rate is down

District demography and planning staff told the board that Fayette County's current enrollment is about 41,070 K–12 students and that pre-K enrollment is near 1,200. "We're on a slight growth pattern," Director of Planning and Enrollment (Mr. Hill) said, while adding that kindergarten cohorts are shrinking in part because of falling birth rates.

Hill and other staff said the district's resident-projection vendor (Davis) shows continued long-term residential development: staff cited roughly 9,377 housing units that are on the planning books, which could sustain growth in future years but also noted development timelines can stall.

Staff presented areas of concentrated growth in the Leestown corridor and the Hamburg area, noting that those patterns informed decisions to site two new schools. Administrators gave preliminary annual operating cost estimates for the two facilities opening next year. Estimated annual overhead for Mary E. Britton Middle School was presented at about $40,838 for insurance and roughly $179,000 for utilities; the Hill's utility estimate was about $297,761 (lower insurance figures were presented for the Hill). Century staffing estimates included roughly 63.7 full-time equivalent positions for Britton (including about 30 teachers and multiple support staff) with an estimated first-year staffing cost of roughly $4.2 million; the Hill was estimated to require roughly $2.6 million in staffing costs, noting the Hill consolidates two existing campuses so the population shift reduces some net impact.

Administrators warned that opening new schools increases fixed costs — utilities, custodial, grounds, transportation and additional administrative positions — and that those costs must be reflected in the tentative budget. They also flagged that transportation reimbursement from SEEK is dropping from the temporarily increased rate and that transportation costs remain sensitive to fuel prices.

Board members asked staff to compare local birth-rate trends to statewide rates and to provide additional detail on how projected residential development will translate to school-level enrollment over time.