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House advances change to state population method used for TABOR calculations
Summary
Lawmakers approved Senate Bill 180 to change which U.S. Census Bureau population estimate the state uses when calculating the TABOR limit growth factor, after members heard technical testimony showing the current method can produce small undercounts or double counts of population.
Members of the Colorado House on Thursday approved Senate Bill 180, a technical change to how the state calculates population growth for the Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) limit. Sponsor Representative Sirota moved the bill and outlined why the change matters for the TABOR cap.
The bill directs the state to use the original annual Census Bureau estimate published in the December release for a given July 1 base year, rather than the revised estimate that appears later. Representative Sirota told colleagues that revisions to prior-year estimates can create either an apparent double count (when revisions are downward) or an undercount (when revisions are upward), producing inconsistent growth factors used in TABOR calculations.
A nonpartisan memo from Legislative Council Staff (LCS) presented to the budget committee found that over the past decade three years would have produced a double count under the current revised-estimate method and two years would have produced an undercount; four years showed negligible differences and one year used the decennial census. Sirota and Representative Taggart used numerical examples on the chamber screens to show how small population revisions translate into different percentage growth figures and, in turn, different TABOR caps.
Representative Taggart explained that TABOR statute requires adjustment “by the percentage change in a prior calendar year as determined by the annual federal census estimates,” and argued the bill clarifies which annual estimate should be compared so the base and comparison year are apples-to-apples.
Representatives pressed staff and sponsors on the fiscal effect. Sponsor-reported estimates showed the change could increase the TABOR limit for fiscal year 2025–26 from about $19.730 billion under the current approach to about $19.810 billion under the bill’s methodology — a difference the sponsor cited as roughly $76.5 million for the fiscal-year cap example shown to members. Assistant Majority Leader Bacon and others asked whether the change would consistently raise or lower the cap; sponsors responded that the shift only corrects methodological inconsistency and that some years the change will increase the cap and other years it could reduce it.
After the technical explanation and discussion, the House voice-voted in favor and the bill was recorded as adopted by the chamber during the floor sequence.
