Consultants report drop in citywide emissions; transportation remains largest source as VMT study outlines policy options

Consultants for Lake Forest Park presented updated greenhouse gas accounting and a vehicle‑miles‑traveled study on March 12, reporting a 14% decrease in community emissions from 2019 to 2023 but identifying transportation and buildings as the two largest remaining sources.

The consultants said the inventory now incorporates a calibrated VMT estimate using PSRC travel models adjusted with StreetLight (“big data”) to better reflect post‑COVID travel patterns. “Overall, we are seeing a 14% decrease in emissions from 02/2019 to 2023,” Consultant Jenna said, adding that decreases were driven mainly by electricity, fuel oil and propane reductions, on‑road and aviation declines, and changes in tree emissions.

Why it matters: the updated inventory and the travel market assessment are being used to set near‑ and long‑term VMT per‑capita reduction targets required under Commerce guidance and to choose strategies that are achievable given how people actually travel in and through Lake Forest Park.

Key inventory and VMT findings

- Community emissions change: The draft inventory shows about a 14% reduction in CO2e between the baseline and 2023. Consultants attributed much of the transportation decline to an increased share of electric vehicles in the fleet and lower aviation emissions tied to SeaTac passenger patterns.

- Aviation: The consultants said SeaTac reported lower fuel consumption and a drop in the share of origin passengers listing King County in passenger surveys (from roughly 82% to 52% in the years compared), which drove the aviation‑related decline recorded in Lake Forest Park’s inventory.

- Trees/land use: The inventory includes emissions associated with forest‑to‑other land‑use change. “That’s 727 metric tons of CO2e,” the consultant explained when staff asked for clarification; consultants said sequestration and emissions are reported separately and that, separately, the city’s trees may sequester several thousand metric tons of CO2e in a given period (a figure the consultant described as approximate and to be detailed in the written report).

- Municipal operations: The municipal baseline presented for 2023 was 247 metric tons CO2e, with the city vehicle fleet identified as the largest municipal source. The municipal inventory omitted several sources because of limited data: business travel, employee commute, fuel oil and propane; city facilities reported being all‑electric and thus no natural gas usage was captured.

- VMT and travel markets: The travel market assessment (using 2023 data) divides trips into work (commute), non‑work resident trips, and non‑work visitor trips. Consultants reported that most vehicle trips that touch the city start or end outside city limits; Census data show a high share of the workforce living in Lake Forest Park commutes outside the city (about 98% of workers living in the city work elsewhere) and household vehicle access is very high (roughly 99% of households report one or more vehicles available).

- Transit and accessibility: Transit boardings associated with stops inside Lake Forest Park dropped by about half between 2019 and 2024 (consultants summarized county‑level ridership and local stop data). The consultants also reported that transit accessibility to jobs from the town center had declined between 2019 and 2024 because of bus network restructures, even where light rail expansions increased regional rail access.

What consultants recommend and next steps

Consultants and staff framed the inventory and VMT assessment as inputs to policy choices for the climate element. They said they will quantify the VMT reductions associated with Climate Action Plan strategies and then identify any additional measures needed to meet Commerce’s required targets. Specific strategy areas discussed included:

- Multimodal infrastructure and an all‑ages‑and‑abilities bicycle/walk “spine” to serve short trips (about one in five trips in the city is under two miles), plus safe routes to school. - Mobility hubs and improved access to the town center so people can reach transit and shared mobility without relying on a car. - Transit‑oriented development and mixed commercial uses to shorten trip lengths and enable shorter, potentially non‑automobile trips. - Parking policy changes (for example, reducing parking minimums) as a tool to support housing affordability and sustainable mode choices. - Regional coordination (King County Metro, PSRC and neighboring cities) to address the large share of trips that cross jurisdictional boundaries and to influence Metro’s long‑range planning processes.

Consultants also asked CPAP members for feedback on additional strategies to consider and said they will incorporate comment submissions into the technical memoranda. They plan to meet with PSRC on target setting, and to bring quantified strategy estimates back to CPAP at the April meeting.

Quotes and attributions in context

- “Overall, we are seeing a 14% decrease in emissions from 02/2019 to 2023,” Consultant Jenna said while presenting the updated inventory.

- “The ultimate goal … is to set VMT per capita reduction targets and develop strategies to achieve those targets,” Marissa Milam, senior transportation planner at Farrin Piers, said when she introduced the VMT study and explained the Commerce guidance the consultants were following.

Limitations and data caveats

Consultants highlighted several data limitations that affect the municipal inventory and strategy analysis: omitted municipal sources (business travel, employee commute, fuel oil/propane), PSRC models using a 2018 base year that required calibration with StreetLight data to reflect current travel patterns, and the need to report emissions and sequestration separately for land‑use/tree calculations.

Next steps and public review

Consultants said they will share a greenhouse gas summary memo in the next month, accept written feedback on VMT strategies through March 19, and return with quantified strategy results and recommended VMT targets at the CPAP April meeting. The consultants asked CPAP members to provide written comments and flagged that the technical memoranda and appendices will be available for review.

Community and staff reaction

CPAP members voiced concern that transit connections to new light rail stations are limited locally and emphasized that regional collaboration—especially with neighboring cities and King County Metro—will be essential to make mobility hubs and transit improvements effective in reducing VMT. Several members reiterated that implementation capacity (for example, a dedicated climate manager or staff capacity within the city) matters to carry strategies from plan to action.

Provenance: see transcript excerpts attached below.