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Board approves 3,223 FTE budget planning estimate after enrollment projection showing decline
Summary
Port Angeles School District trustees voted unanimously to use a 3,223 FTE estimate to start 2025–26 budget planning after staff presented a multi-year enrollment model showing a projected fall 2025 enrollment near 3,222.9 FTE and a 10‑year downward trend.
The Port Angeles School District Board of Directors voted unanimously on March 13 to adopt the district’s enrollment estimate for 2025–26 that staff will use to build the coming year’s budget.
District finance staff presented a new cohort roll‑up model that projects approximately 3,222.9 full‑time equivalent (FTE) students for fall 2025 and showed a 10‑year enrollment decline that staff said justifies a lower planning number. Staff said the projection represents a 62‑FTE reduction from the current‑year average and an 82‑FTE reduction from last year’s budget and estimated that difference will translate into roughly $1.1–$1.2 million in staffing‑related reductions required to balance the budget.
“We use FTE to estimate state apportionment,” finance staff explained. They described the tradeoffs of over‑ and under‑estimating: if the district budgets high and actual enrollment proves lower the state can recoup overpayments, creating midyear shortfalls; if the district budgets conservatively and enrollment is higher, the district receives extra funds later in the school year. Staff said the new model combines historical rollups and birth‑to‑enrollment ratios to arrive at the recommendation.
A motion recorded at the meeting said, “I move we accept March as our current estimate for budget planning.” A second followed, and the chair announced the motion passed unanimously.
Board members asked clarifying questions about the modeling method and the financial consequences of an over‑ or under‑estimate. Staff clarified that roughly 84% of district expenditures are employee‑related and that commitments to staff contracts made before a final state apportionment create the largest budgetary inflexibilities.
Superintendent and board comments at the meeting also highlighted capital projects underway — including an upcoming groundbreaking at Stevens — and noted that new schools can reverse enrollment declines over time. The board instructed staff to proceed with budget development based on the adopted FTE estimate and related staffing assumptions.
