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District 25 enrollment projected to rise modestly over next decade, consultant says
Summary
A demographer’s Series B projection presented to the Arlington Heights SD 25 board forecasts modest K–8 enrollment growth through 2034–35, driven by continued housing turnover to younger families.
Arlington Heights SD 25 staff and demographer Dr. John Casarda presented updated demographic and enrollment projections at the board’s March 11 meeting that show modest district‑wide growth over the next decade under the report’s most likely (Series B) scenario.
The district currently reports 5,186 students (K–8) and the Series B forecast projects an increase to roughly 5,357 students by 2029–30 and 5,499 by 2034–35. The projection depends heavily on continued housing turnover from older homeowners to younger families with children, Dr. Casarda’s team told the board.
Kendra (staff presenter) summarized the methodology: the consultant analyzed long‑run demographic trends, housing turnover and student migration/transfer patterns and produced school‑by‑school forecasts. The presentation compared earlier (2022) projections with the 2024 update and showed that actual enrollment has remained above the 2022 forecast and aligns more closely with the more optimistic 2024 scenario.
At the building level the 5‑year outlook showed Windsor, Westgate, Dryden and Ivy Hill with expected double‑digit gains; Patton and Olive were projected to be roughly flat or have modest increases. South Middle School’s headcount was projected to grow from about 802 students in 2024 to about 908 by 2034–35; Thomas Middle School projections showed a decline to the mid‑900s followed by a modest rebound.
Why it matters: The district used Casarda’s projections to justify capacity planning and to inform staffing and capital decisions, including the full‑day kindergarten additions installed under the recent referendum. Board members asked whether projected increases would require additional classroom capacity; administration said the referendum additions were sized to provide margin for modest enrollment bumps.
What the board heard: - Dr. John Casarda described methodology emphasizing housing turnover, tear‑downs and migration patterns dating to 1990. - Staff noted kindergarten numbers fluctuated: full‑day kindergarten implementation and housing turnover influenced the recent rebound from a low of 386 in 2023–24 to 491 in 2024–25.
The board thanked staff and Dr. Casarda and asked that administration continue monitoring housing and enrollment trends as the district finalizes plans for staffing and facilities.
