Regional economists tell Pecosin council Hampton Roads economy shows resilience but faces uncertainty

Representatives from the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) and the Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) briefed Pecosin City Council on regional economic trends, water and transportation planning, and several regional initiatives during the Feb. 25 work session.

Nikki Johnson, the HRPDC’s regional economist, summarized economic indicators for the nation, the Hampton Roads region and Pecosin. She said national GDP growth eased in 2024 but remained above the pre‑pandemic decade average; inflation has moderated from a 2022 peak but ‘‘stalled’’ near 3% in 2024. She described persistent uncertainty and flagged recent food and energy price movements as contributors to a modest uptick in inflation. Johnson said wages have, at times, outpaced inflation and that consumer spending helped sustain growth.

"What this is signaling is a normalization to pre‑pandemic trends rather than an impending downturn," Johnson said, summarizing the national and regional picture for council. She noted local labor markets had recovered pandemic losses by early 2023 and that Pecosin’s unemployment rate remained low (about 2.4%), per the presentation.

Johnson also reported sector details and housing data: private education and health services, construction, and professional business services showed year‑over‑year job gains; leisure and hospitality recovered to pre‑pandemic levels in 2023 but hotel revenue in the region showed signs of slowing. She said the region saw a third straight year of rising defense spending, estimating about $14.6 billion in authorized defense spending in 2024, and observed that defense appropriations for 2025 showed increases in authorizations though timing of appropriations remained uncertain. On housing, Johnson said mortgage rates remain elevated compared with pandemic lows and that inventory levels continue to constrain supply; Pecosin, she added, showed a stronger rebound in home sales in 2024 compared with many neighboring localities.

HRPDC and TPO director Bob Crum and deputy staff described organization responsibilities and ongoing regional projects. Crum said the PDC coordinates planning, environmental, water resources and human‑services initiatives across 17 localities. He detailed the PDC/TPO role in transportation programming and explained that no federal, state or regional transportation funds are allocated to projects in Hampton Roads without TPO approval. Crum highlighted three regional initiatives of interest to Pecosin: (1) the regional legislative agenda, which coordinates unified legislative asks to the General Assembly and Congress; (2) an extension of the Virginia Capital Trail across the Peninsula to Fort Monroe and beyond, with more than $15 million in recent segment funding secured; and (3) subsea transatlantic internet cables and a regional fiber‑ring project that could strengthen the region’s position as a global internet hub if connected to Peninsula localities.

Council members asked about trail types (separated multi‑use paths preferred; cycle tracks or on‑street bike lanes where necessary), funding sources (a mix of state, federal, transportation alternatives and local CIP contributions), and potential economic benefits of fiber connectivity. Crum said the Capital Trail extension is being funded segment by segment and that recent awards totaled more than $15 million for segments; he described the subsea cable and fiber‑ring work as an opportunity to attract higher‑speed service and competition among internet providers.

No formal action was taken; the briefing was informational. Council members and staff thanked the HRPDC/TPO delegation for the presentation and said they would publish trail maps and materials on the city website for public access.