Consultants say Dade City market shows $90 million retail gap; commission debates focus on 301 corridor vs. downtown

Garrett Smitherman, a consultant with Retail Strategies, told the Dade City Commission that the firm’s market analysis shows a Dade City total market supply of $820,000,000 and a demand of $909,000,000 — leaving a roughly $90,000,000 opportunity gap in local retail spending that currently flows to neighboring markets.

The gap, Smitherman said during the Feb. meeting, points to categories where Dade City is underrepresented, including beverage operators (coffee and juice), full-service and limited-service restaurants, grocery/supermarket, health/medicine retail and apparel. "We want to capture those dollars," Smitherman said, describing the firm’s role in matching national and regional brands with available local sites.

Retail Strategies described an active pipeline of interest: seven restaurant prospects spanning fast-casual, sandwich and family pizza concepts; three new-to-market coffee brands plus one seeking a second location; two automotive prospects (a care-and-maintenance operator and a convenience/travel store); two hotel opportunities (one structured to work with local investors); and a larger apparel retailer interested in backfilling existing space. The consultants emphasized that many national retailers look first to established commercial corridors and co-tenancy with other national brands.

Why it matters: City commissioners and downtown merchants said the commission should ensure that recruitment of national retailers does not hollow out the city’s historic downtown, where locally owned businesses remain the community’s commercial heart. Commissioner Shive urged protection for mom-and-pop businesses and asked that consultants also pursue downtown-appropriate tenants and not focus solely on big-box or corridor retail. Several downtown merchants who spoke during public comment asked to be included “at the table” for recruitment discussions and warned that some national entrants could compete directly with existing small businesses.

Discussion and firm responses: Retail Strategies’ Garrett Smitherman and colleague Drew Kaufman explained the firm’s process: discovery and demographic analysis, identification of peer markets, targeted outreach to tenant representatives and property owners, and ongoing reanalysis as demographics and traffic patterns change. Smitherman said many retailers “don’t care what city you are” and instead focus on foot traffic, vehicle counts and co-tenancy; he said consultants generally aim to keep retailer activity within the city limits but will advise and cultivate relationships broadly because retailers may consider sites just outside the municipal boundary.

Kaufman addressed timeline expectations when asked by commissioners: "We generally say that you can expect things to potentially happen in 18 to 36 months," he said, adding longer horizons are common when retailers evaluate multiple markets and wait for site or lease availability.

Commissioners asked the consultants to clarify their geographic focus and to increase outreach to downtown properties. Mayor Black and Commissioner Cosentino said both the 301 commercial corridor and downtown revitalization are important and distinct goals: corridor retail can generate jobs and tax revenue, while downtown businesses provide the city’s character and year-round foot traffic. Smitherman said the firm’s primary outreach has centered on the 301 corridor because national retailers are commonly drawn to existing commercial concentration, but he also said the firm will present downtown-suitable opportunities when a brand indicates a preference for historic or smaller-footprint locations.

Public comment: Downtown merchants and residents voiced concerns about the potential competitive impact of national retail in downtown. Stephanie Knight, a downtown business owner, asked that merchants be included in recruitment conversations so downtown needs and vulnerabilities are considered. Jason Moretti and other residents emphasized protecting Dade City’s brand and local character when matching retailers to the community.

Outcome and follow-up: The presentation concluded with the consultants agreeing to share the full presentation with the commission. No formal directive or binding change to the city’s contract with Retail Strategies was recorded at the meeting; commissioners indicated they want the firm to continue marketing to retailers while giving additional attention to downtown needs and to sites inside the city limits. The consultants reiterated limitations: final retailer decisions depend on lease/landowner negotiations, retailer underwriting and market timing, and the city’s permitting, zoning and infrastructure conditions.

Votes at the meeting not tied to this presentation: Separately, the commission approved the consent agenda 5–0 and adopted Ordinance 2025-02 (Florida Water Star certification) on second reading 5–0.

Ending: Retail Strategies left the commission with a request to provide downtown property lists and continued engagement; commissioners said they will consider how recruitment and downtown preservation can be balanced as outreach continues.