CHSD 128 enrollment forecast shows tapering decline; EL, low-income and special-needs proportions rising

District staff reviewed historical enrollment and new projections at the Feb. 10 Facilities & Finance meeting, saying the marked declines seen over recent years appear to taper and the district may see relatively flat enrollment over the next five years.

The staff member explained the projection model compares actual district enrollment (the green line) with demographic projections prepared by the demographer (Casarda), and that the demographer provides three projection paths (A low, B most likely, C high). He cautioned that some charts do not start at zero on the y-axis to highlight small year-to-year changes.

Staff said three special-population groups have shown notable increases: English learners (EL), students qualifying for fee waivers/low-income supports, and students with individualized education programs (IEPs). On EL students, staff said exit from EL status occurs after students meet state access-test thresholds (the administrator cited an exit score of about 4.8) and that the EL count can change year to year as students exit or are monitored.

Staff also reported that Lake County live-birth data are a strong predictor of kindergarten enrollment and noted that county births rose in 2021 but declined again in 2022; the district watches that data as an early indicator of future kindergarten and subsequent high-school class sizes.

Ending: Staff said detailed projections and associated staffing implications will be included in future financial projection materials for the board; trustees asked for continuation of the data-driven demographic work to inform budgeting and staffing decisions.