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District projects slower enrollment decline; English-learner, low-income and special‑education shares rise
Summary
District staff presented enrollment forecasts showing a tapering decline in overall enrollment but continued increases in the shares of English-learner, low‑income and special‑education students.
District 128 staff presented updated enrollment data and forecasts showing the recent years of declining enrollment may level off, though certain student populations are growing as a share of the total.
Dan (district staff) summarized historical enrollment back to 2016–17, explained the district’s use of demographer Casarda for multi‑scenario projections (A/B/C ranges) and said next year’s overall enrollment is expected to decline only slightly with a relatively flat multi‑year outlook.
Staff highlighted three special populations that have risen and will affect staffing and budgeting: English learners (EL), students qualifying for fee waivers/low‑income status, and students with Individualized Education Programs (IEPs). Dan cautioned projections for these smaller subpopulations should be treated as trend indicators, and said one‑year projections are most reliable.
The district also monitors live‑birth counts in Lake County as a leading indicator of kindergarten enrollment. Dan said county birth rates fell in 2022 after a small uptick in 2021 and that trend will influence future kindergarten cohorts.
Dan said the district’s projections rely heavily on accurate feeder‑district data and that Casarda’s results are more reliable when districts provide consistent, precise enrollment figures. Board members asked staff to bring semester performance data and measures of the effectiveness of supports at a future Program & Personnel meeting.
