Everett Public Schools projects return to pre-pandemic enrollment by 2028; district weighs capacity and bond timing

District staff told the Everett Public Schools board on March 11 that the district’s October 1, 2024 enrollment was 19,727 and that medium-range projections anticipate growth to roughly 21,373 students by 2034, returning the district to or above pre-pandemic levels by about 2028.

“You can’t do school without students,” Director of Planning and Enrollment (presenting) said during the update, summarizing why enrollment projections drive budgeting, capital planning and staffing.

The presentation, prepared with Educational Data Solutions, showed a short dip in kindergarten cohorts tied to pandemic-era birth rates followed by a sustained bubble that will move through elementary, middle and high schools over the next decade. The medium-range projection in Kendrick’s model showed a net gain of approximately 1,646 students by 2034 compared with the current year, with much of the growth concentrated at the elementary level in the near term and later increasing at secondary levels.

Staff listed housing developments within district boundaries that will add capacity and likely affect enrollments: Park District in north Everett (about 1,500 residential units proposed), Riverfront Phase 2 (an estimated 1,250 apartments with 332 already completed and new townhome phases including 3–4 bedroom units), downtown multifamily projects and smaller developments in the south part of the district. Staff noted that larger multi-bedroom units are likelier to bring additional students.

Capital capacity planning: staff displayed current permanent building capacities (excluding portables) and projected demand. On the district’s elementary-capacity graph, two capacity increases tied to planned new schools (Jackson and Madison projects) were shown; even so, medium-range projections indicate continued need for portables at peak years. For middle schools, permanent capacity is unchanged in the district’s current plan; by 2034 projected middle-school enrollment could exceed permanent capacity by several hundred students, requiring portable space or future construction.

Board members pressed staff on timing. When asked how quickly a new elementary could open if a bond passed in 2026, capital staff said early design work could shave time: “Earliest, probably move in ’28 at the very earliest. And that is if we begin the design work early,” a district capital staff member said. The district noted a typical elementary build size of about 600 students.

Staff framed next steps: continued projection refinement through August, staffing and budget work in March, and final enrollment adjustments once the fall student count is known. The Board’s Capital Bond Planning Committee will receive the detailed reports and is scheduled to begin deep planning work that could inform a future bond or levy package.

The presentation was informational; the board did not take a binding vote on bond placement or new construction at the meeting.