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High school AP Statistics students propose 67% buffer over winter average for non-watering days
Summary
New Tech High AP Statistics students analyzed two years of residential monthly water data and recommended allowing up to 1.67 times the winter average on non-watering days as a buffer to reduce false violations; city staff said they will consider a softer buffer and test thresholds before adopting policy changes.
Three AP Statistics students from New Tech High School presented results of a data project with city staff. The students tested statistical buffers to distinguish lawful household water use on non‑watering days from irrigation overuse during summer restrictions.
Students explained their three-step method: calculate the difference and ratio between average summer usage and winter average, compute the mean winter-average divided by combined standard deviations across a sampled set of properties, and test candidate buffers using individual property histograms. They recommended a buffer of 1.67 (67 percent over winter average) to accommodate natural variation across household sizes and usage patterns.
“Doubling the average amount over the winter average would be most appropriate,” one student said during the presentation, noting the recommendation was intended for broad applicability and to account for larger properties. Students also displayed sample histograms showing winter averages, the buffer cutoff and the amount of summer overuse the buffer would allow without triggering a violation.
City staff told council they are exploring a softer buffer and will pilot thresholds before any formal policy change. Jerry Young said staff currently flag violations as any consumption exceeding a property’s winter average on non‑watering days, and added a buffer would reduce false positives. Students and staff agreed the exercise provided useful real‑world training for students and helpful analysis for the city.
Council members thanked the students and asked them to produce a short video or plain-language summary for public outreach; staff will consider the students’ proposed buffer while testing operational thresholds for the dashboard and potential policy language.
