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Duarte Unified projects 10-year enrollment drop; kindergarten capture rate holds at about 68%
Summary
A demographic forecast presented to the Duarte Unified School District board projects a 14% decline in resident TK–12 enrollment over five years and a 23% decline over 10 years, driven largely by falling birth rates and low student yield from new multifamily housing. The district currently enrolls about 511 students who live outside the district.
Duarte Unified School District officials heard on-the-record demographic projections showing a steady decline in resident student population over the next decade.
The 10-year resident-student forecast, presented by Esau Hoya, project manager for MGT Impact Solutions, estimates a 14% drop in TK–12 resident enrollment over the next five years and a 23% decline over 10 years, with more pronounced declines at the TK and high-school levels.
The forecast rests on mapped student home addresses, birth-rate data from the California Department of Public Health, residential development sampling and neighborhood-level mobility factors derived from three years of student records. Hoya said the local kindergarten…
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