Gaithersburg staff present semiannual population and development-pipeline reports; flag data discrepancies and list thousands of proposed housing units

Gaithersburg City planning staff presented the semiannual population report and the companion development-pipeline report at a joint work session with the mayor, city council and the planning commission on March 10, 2025.

The presentation, led by Kirk Eby, summarized the city's January 1, 2025 estimates and the development pipeline tracked by staff. Eby said the city's estimated population on Jan. 1, 2025, is 73,092 persons; staff estimates 27,181 occupied dwelling units and about 1,278 vacant units (roughly a 4.5% vacancy rate). Eby also reported an active pipeline of roughly 3,500 new dwelling units and an inactive and anticipated pipeline totaling more than 6,700 units.

Why this matters: the reports are the city's primary, semiannual reference for demographic, housing and near-term development information used in master planning, permit tracking and resource allocation.

Eby described the reports' purpose and methods, noting they are not real-time tools and that some underlying federal sources lag by about two years. He emphasized the American Community Survey (ACS) and Census Bureau population estimates are produced with different methods and timeframes, which can produce different figures for the same time period. "The key thing to keep in mind is that the population report is not meant to be a real time reporting tool," Eby said.

City-versus-federal estimates and timing: Eby told the group that the city's 2023 and 2025 estimates are not perfectly aligned with the Census Bureau's ACS and Population Estimates Program and that staff is investigating whether methodological differences explain the gap. He said the city is reporting its building-permit data to the Census Bureau and has asked the bureau to review older permit submissions the city supplied.

What the reports show: the presentation highlighted several specific findings from the January 2025 reports: rental apartments make up roughly 41% of dwelling units but account for about 34% of the population; detached houses account for about 17% of stock and about 22% of the population. Eby also cited dramatic changes in commuting patterns: the share of residents working from home rose from about 3.5% in 2013 to roughly 24% in recent data, and the share driving alone to work dropped from about 70% to about 54%.

Jobs, density and housing types: Eby said the total number of jobs in Gaithersburg has varied between about 46,000 and 50,000 since 2008 while the city's nonresidential building area has remained near 39 million square feet. As residential construction has outpaced nonresidential construction, the city's jobs-to-household and jobs-to-dwelling-unit ratios have declined since 2010. Eby reported the city's current jobs-per-household estimate is about 1.6 (the ACS estimate is about 1.4) and that MWCOG cooperative-forecast outputs project those ratios to rise by mid-century.

Pipeline highlights and subdivisions: the pipeline report separates active projects (entitled and likely to be built within roughly 10 years) from inactive or anticipated projects (approved but not proceeding or planned conceptually). Eby said examples in the active pipeline include Lake Forest (the former mall site) and projects staff referenced as 1 Central and Spectrum; the inactive pipeline includes projects such as the fairgrounds and other concept/sketch-plan items. The report lists subdivision-level counts. Eby said Old Town is the largest subdivision by dwelling units (2,387 units) and that one neighborhood identified as Kellyn's had the largest population in the city sample (5,592 persons).

Affordability and special-unit counts: the report flags units with income and/or age restrictions: about 6% of city dwelling units are income-restricted (including MPDUs and workforce units), more than 13% of rental units are income-restricted, and roughly 8% of all dwelling units are age-restricted. Eby also noted roughly 434 units are both age- and income-restricted and that nearly all age-restricted units are multifamily rental apartments except for a few units at Asbury Methodist Village.

Questions and next steps: Councilmembers and commissioners questioned implications for jobs-versus-housing balance, annexation and vesting of older approvals. Eby said the July report will include the Census Bureau's July 1, 2024 population estimate when it is released and reaffirmed staff will continue to investigate the city/federal estimate differences. Mayor (name not specified) and several councilmembers also discussed potential impacts of changes to the federal workforce (Eby had reported roughly 10% of city workers are federal employees) and suggested further analysis for economic-development planning.

Where to find the reports: Eby said both reports and a city demographic GIS viewer are available on the city's demographics web page; he closed by inviting follow-up questions and noting the reports are intended as a starting point for deeper, topic-specific analyses.