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OEA briefs Senate Finance and Revenue on updated revenue forecasting methods
Summary
The state Office of Economic Analysis told the committee it relies on a Standard & Poor's national forecast and then tailors models for Oregon; the office described how personal income tax forecasting works, identified capital gains as a key source of volatility, and said it has incorporated the kicker into its internal methodology.
The Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue received an informational briefing from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) on March 10, 2025, explaining the office's revenue-forecast methodology and recent methodological updates. OEA staff described their reliance on a 10-year national forecast from Standard & Poor's, how that forecast is translated to Oregon-specific outcomes, and why components such as capital gains make personal income tax receipts particularly volatile.
OEA officials said their economic forecast feeds the revenue forecast used for the governor's budget and legislative projections. Carl Ricadano, the state's chief economist, said OEA translates the S&P national outlook into an Oregon model and consults advisory groups, including the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, to adjust for state-specific factors. "We take an S and P forecast for the…
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