Council endorses 25% preliminary threshold, advances stock-definition work under Phase 2

The Pacific Fishery Management Council on March 20 moved the Phase 2 stock-definition process forward by adopting a 25% threshold framework as a preliminary filter to identify species “principally caught” in federal waters and by advancing a slate of species for further analysis.

The 25% threshold — meaning species for which at least 25% of fishing-related mortality occurs in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone — was presented to the council by lead analyst Todd Phillips and recommended by the council’s Groundfish Management Team. “We selected a precautionary threshold of 25 percent,” Phillips said during the briefing, describing the decision as intended to create a manageable subset of species for further work.

Why it matters: The council’s groundfish Fishery Management Plan lists species but not stock boundaries. Defining stocks is a prerequisite for assessment, rebuilding plans and allocation decisions. Using a quantitative filter shortens the initial workload by flagging species that likely require continued federal management and those that might be moved to other tiers of consideration.

What the council did: After lengthy discussion among council members, staff and advisory bodies, the council voted to adopt the 25% threshold framework as a policy tool to guide Phase 2 work. The Groundfish Management Team and Groundfish Advisory Panel had both recommended the approach in written reports presented at the meeting; GMT staff William Jasper told the council the team “agrees that the application of 25% is a reasonable proxy to determine the proportion of fishing-related mortality occurring in federal waters.” The Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) urged caution and said the 25% choice should be treated as a policy decision and revisited as new information arrives.

Details and next steps: Analysts will use recreational and commercial mortality data, genetic and life-history literature and targeted analyses to place species into one of the council’s alternatives: (1) remain in the FMP and be defined for federal management, (2) be removed from the FMP, or (3) be designated an ecosystem-component (EC) species that remains listed but is not prioritized for federal management. The GMT recommended 46 species as initial candidates to remain in the FMP and identified an additional set for more review.

What advisers said: The SSC highlighted limits in using recreational catch counts rather than biomass and cautioned that the 25% value is not fully stress-tested. “Using numbers instead of weights for recreational data may lead to misinterpretations,” SSC Chair Cheryl Barnes told the council. The GMT and GAP urged Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife to supply finer-scale recreational spatial data so the threshold can be applied coastwide.

Outlook: The council asked staff to bring back more detailed stock-definition proposals (preliminary preferred alternatives where possible) at subsequent meetings and to continue work with states, tribes and advisory bodies. Council members emphasized that the threshold is a first-pass filter, not an irreversible decision: stocks may be returned to federal consideration if new evidence warrants it.

Ending: The council’s scope-setting moves Phase 2 from concept toward concrete stock definitions and narrows the initial analysis burden. The next scheduled checkpoints for the stock-definition effort are in the months ahead as staff and advisory bodies produce the detailed papers analysts will need to recommend specific boundaries and management designations.