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Applied Economics projects modest near‑term growth, larger gains over 20 years; district gains interactive boundary planning tool
Summary
Applied Economics consultant Rick Brammer told the Cache County School District board on March 6 that long‑range modeling shows continued growth in the district, with roughly 3,700 additional students projected over the next decade and a larger school‑age population increase driving facility planning.
Rick Brammer of Applied Economics presented a draft long‑range enrollment and demographic report at the March 6 Cache County School District board meeting, outlining past trends, housing inventory and multi‑scenario projections intended to guide boundary and facilities planning.
Brammer said the district currently serves an estimated population of about 90,000 and that his team divided the district into 118 micro‑analysis areas to model neighborhood‑level changes. He described two modeling approaches — a top‑down macroeconomic model and a bottom‑up model that aggregates the 118 planning grids — and said the district had asked the consultant to extend projections to 20 years to inform potential major capital decisions such as high‑school siting.
Key findings presented included a projection the district could see roughly 3,700 additional enrolled students over the next 10 years even after accounting for an expected decline in the district’s service rate (the share of school‑age children attending district schools). Brammer said the district’s current service rate is about 84.7% (about 85%), noting some post‑COVID declines in service rates and intermittent growth in charter and nonpublic options.
On housing, Brammer said the team compiled recent building permits and an inventory of potential residential development and estimated roughly 28,200 potential housing units in planning documents across the study area, with about 1,700 units active in projects now. For a nearer‑term scenario, he said an assumption of about 800 housing units per year would yield roughly 8,000 new units over the next decade — a figure he presented after correcting an earlier misspoken number.
Brammer highlighted demographic drivers: declining birth rates nationally and statewide have changed age‑cohort patterns, pushing the district’s peak enrollment into higher grades while kindergarten cohorts are smaller than a decade earlier. He showed district assessment and enrollment‑by‑grade curves and noted that attendance‑area population counts and open‑enrollment patterns differ; roughly 90% of students attend their designated school but some attendance areas show notable in‑ or outflows that planners must consider.
The presentation included an interactive online boundary‑planning tool that lets staff run "what if" scenarios by aggregating the 118 grids into attendance areas and school assignments and projecting future student totals. District staff said the tool will support the facilities advisory committee’s 2026 boundary work and future facility decisions.
No board action was taken; the consultant’s report will feed the district’s long‑range facilities work, boundary planning and committee recommendations.
