Demographer: Birdville ISD enrollment likely to fall to about 21,500 in five years as birth rates and school choice weigh on incoming classes

Birdville ISD’s demographer, Bob Templeton, told the Board of Trustees on Feb. 10 that the district’s fall enrollment beat the firm’s forecast for the year but that the district is likely to see a slow decline over the next five years, to roughly 21,500 students.

Templeton said the district’s fall enrollment was 22,325 and that his firm had forecast 22,157; Birdville exceeded that forecast by 168 students. He recommended school leaders focus on five‑year planning rather than a 10‑year horizon because near‑term trends — especially lower birth rates and expanded school choice — will drive building and program decisions.

The projected decline matters because it affects building utilization, capital planning and short‑term budgeting. Templeton told the board that a birth‑to‑kindergarten ratio that once averaged in the 0.90s has fallen in recent years to roughly 0.81, and that the share of children who do not enter Birdville ISD kindergartens (because they attend charters, private schools or are homeschooled) is now about 20 percent in the firm’s data.

Templeton tied the enrollment outlook to housing and local market trends. He reported DFW‑area median home prices remain above $400,000 and cited an average price around $496,000…