Demographer: Birdville ISD enrollment likely to fall to about 21,500 in five years as birth rates and school choice weigh on incoming classes

Birdville ISD’s demographer, Bob Templeton, told the Board of Trustees on Feb. 10 that the district’s fall enrollment beat the firm’s forecast for the year but that the district is likely to see a slow decline over the next five years, to roughly 21,500 students.

Templeton said the district’s fall enrollment was 22,325 and that his firm had forecast 22,157; Birdville exceeded that forecast by 168 students. He recommended school leaders focus on five‑year planning rather than a 10‑year horizon because near‑term trends — especially lower birth rates and expanded school choice — will drive building and program decisions.

The projected decline matters because it affects building utilization, capital planning and short‑term budgeting. Templeton told the board that a birth‑to‑kindergarten ratio that once averaged in the 0.90s has fallen in recent years to roughly 0.81, and that the share of children who do not enter Birdville ISD kindergartens (because they attend charters, private schools or are homeschooled) is now about 20 percent in the firm’s data.

Templeton tied the enrollment outlook to housing and local market trends. He reported DFW‑area median home prices remain above $400,000 and cited an average price around $496,000 for the region. For Birdville ISD specifically, he said new‑home average price softened from about $400,000 in 2023 to about $362,000 in 2024, while existing home prices have held near about $330,000. He described the district’s new‑home start rate at roughly 430 (annualized), with a closing rate he gave as "2.94" in his slides and noted inventory numbers he identified as 264 homes under construction, about 381 vacant developed lots and roughly 317 future lots.

Templeton pointed to 14 actively building subdivisions and 10 future subdivisions in the district and identified the Stowe Elementary attendance zone as the most active for recent starts. He cited specific developments including Heritage Village (which he described as "410 total units," with a mix that he summarized as 60 single‑family homes and 250 townhomes) and smaller projects such as Diamond Park Estates. On the multifamily side he said one project in the Binion zone approaching completion accounts for about 350 units and that an additional roughly 2,000 multifamily units are in planning stages across the district.

He told the board that regionally the annualized multifamily unit change through September 2024 was 37,217 units built while absorption was 18,083, a gap that drove occupancy declines and modest rent pressure: he reported occupancy has fallen from about 91.5 percent in 2022 and rents have dropped roughly 2–3 percent in the most recent period, with 38 percent of apartments offering concessions such as two months’ free rent or gift cards.

Templeton said multifamily housing typically yields about one‑third the student yield of single‑family housing and that, across clients, multifamily developments have produced fewer children per unit. He cautioned that some new apartment projects are likely to attract single adults, empty‑nest households or moves within the district rather than significant inflows of school‑aged children.

On the district’s cohort structure, Templeton said larger secondary cohorts now in the system will take several years to graduate, producing a delayed decline in middle‑ and high‑school counts: he projected middle schools to hold near current levels for four to five years before declining and high school enrollment to fall from about 7,100 now to near 6,900 in five years under the model’s assumptions.

Templeton emphasized that school choice changes expected from pending legislation could affect projections and said his firm is close to providing a new report showing counts of district‑resident students who attend charter or private schools; he said Birdville was one of three test districts for that dataset and that the reports would be shared soon.

Board members asked follow‑up questions about market segmentation of new multifamily housing, whether new units are likely to bring families with children and whether multifamily will affect school populations; Templeton replied that apartment demand has been driven by broader regional construction and yields fewer students than single‑family construction. He also encouraged the district to focus resources on early elementary enrollment strategies, noting other districts that beat forecasts concentrated on pre‑K and kindergarten outreach.

Templeton concluded by reiterating that, while Birdville posted a modest increase this fall, the larger structural drivers — birth rates, limited turnover in older single‑family housing and growth in school choice — make near‑term five‑year planning the prudent approach for facilities and program decisions.

Looking ahead, board members and staff said they will consider community forums and additional data briefings to inform potential long‑range facility planning and enrollment mitigation strategies.