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CPS presents three budget scenarios as state and federal funding outlooks worsen
Summary
Cincinnati Public Schools on March 3 presented three budget‑balancing scenarios to address an anticipated revenue shortfall driven by a worsening state and federal funding outlook.
Cincinnati Public Schools administration presented three draft approaches March 3 to address a projected decline in general‑fund revenue and asked the board for direction on next steps and priorities.
Treasurer Wagner and Superintendent Murphy said the district’s November forecast left the general fund at roughly $644 million for the current budget cycle; updated assumptions and the governor’s proposed budget model could reduce state aid, producing an approximate $20 million gap that would lower the revenue forecast to about $624 million. The administration reminded the board that prior-year obligations and committed line items (debt service, required tuition, utilities, sick‑leave conversions and other “fixed” items) already consume a meaningful share of the fund and cannot easily be cut.
Administration outlined three scenarios to balance to the lower forecast:
• Scenario 1 — an even 14% reduction applied across schools and central office budgets;
• Scenario 2 — preserve current school budgets and reduce central office budgets by about 31% to meet the shortfall;
• Scenario 3 — build a budget that starts from state minimum service levels and layers priorities back in (a bottoms‑up approach).
Treasurer Wagner explained the district also added new obligations for fiscal year 2026 during the planning process (for example, contractual step increases and other baseline additions) that increase pressure on the budget. Administration listed major spending buckets (personnel and benefits, transportation, utilities, curriculum subscriptions, professional services and supplies) and noted personnel is the largest single category.
Board members asked the administration to prepare more detailed scenario-based analyses, including a baseline “minimum” budget by department and a worst‑case scenario that reflects possible deeper state reductions. Several members urged the administration to bring concrete proposals the board can review in public — for example, line‑by‑line impacts for each scenario and options for repurposing or consolidating services such as resource coordination, athletics administration and other centrally funded functions.
Superintendent Murphy and Treasurer Wagner told the board they will return with more detailed modeling and recommended options; the board set an expectation for timely follow-up so the district can meet certification and forecasting deadlines later this spring.
