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Tampa Bay Water presents annual demand forecast; South Hillsborough and Pasco show highest growth
Summary
Staff presented the agency's annual probabilistic demand forecast showing regional demand projections through 2044, with the South Hillsborough area and Pasco County as the fastest‑growing areas; staff said forecast delivery for FY 2026 would be about 209.71 MGD and that members concurred with projections.
Tampa Bay Water staff presented the annual demand forecast update and evaluation, a probabilistic projection used to time capital investments and to prepare the annual budget. The report covers seven planning areas and three customer sectors (single family, multifamily and nonresidential) and extends to fiscal year 2044.
Warren Hogg, the agency's forecasting lead, said the regional projection for 2044 is about 332 million gallons per day (MGD), a roughly 3 MGD downward revision from last year's long‑range projection because of updated consumption drivers. Tampa Bay Water's forecasted deliveries to members for fiscal year 2026 are 209.71 MGD, equal to the current budgeted delivery and reflecting reduced regional demand in 2024 tied to outdoor irrigation restrictions.
Hogg told the board the forecast uses member governments' billing data, BEBR (Bureau of Economic and Business Research) and Moody Analytics socioeconomic inputs and that member utility staffs have reviewed and concurred with the agency's projections. He said the highest growth is expected in South Hillsborough County and Pasco County. Board members asked whether the agency can meet projected demand; Hogg said the master water plan and the agency's timing of new supplies address that obligation and that the agency will continue to update forecasts annually.
Board members also asked how zoning or changes to residential densities affect projections; Hogg said annual updates and the member governments' public hearing processes provide sufficient lead time to reflect any zoning or density changes in future forecasts.
Staff indicated the forecast will be incorporated into the FY 2026 budget process and used to refine timing and capacity decisions for the next supply source.
