Revenue Estimating Conference updates transportation forecast; analysts split on fuel and rental-car projections

A session of the Revenue Estimating Conference reviewed transportation-related revenue through the December 2024 distribution and discussed updated forecasts that feed mainly into the State Transportation Trust Fund.

The conference convened analysts from the governor—s office, the Department of Revenue (DOR), the Department of Transportation (DOT) and other forecasting bodies to compare models and input assumptions. Participants reported collections data with a two-month reporting lag (the December 2024 distribution reflects November collections) and reviewed variables that drive each series: pump price per gallon, fleet miles per gallon, visitor counts, construction expenditures and refund rates.

Why it matters: the conference—s forecasts inform the State Transportation Trust Fund and other budget planning. Changes in assumptions about fuel economy, visitor flows and construction activity materially alter revenue projections for motor fuel, diesel, dyed/off-highway fuel, aviation fuel, and the rental-car surcharge.

Analysts— data and modeling inputs

Speakers said the packet covered six months of fuel data and eight months of rental-car surcharge receipts. Key year-to-date figures cited by analysts included: motor fuel gallons about 0.3% above the prior-year same period, diesel gallons about 1.4% above, off-highway fuel roughly 1.7% above, aviation fuel about 3% below, and rental-car surcharge receipts about 1.5% above. Analysts repeatedly flagged the national forecast from the National Estimating Conference (S&P) as an input for price and fleet-mileage assumptions and noted a roughly uniform 0.7% fleet-miles-per-gallon increase in that provider—s recent inputs.

Motor fuel

Analysts discussed a stronger near-term growth rate for motor fuel that tails negative in the distant years of the forecast due to assumed increases in fleet fuel efficiency and slowing population growth. DOR presenters and others pointed to recent month-to-month volatility and hurricane-related dips in October and November collections that may be anomalous in the short run. Multiple participants said they preferred to adopt the Department of Revenue—s motor-fuel series as the conference—s representative forecast for that series (participants expressed agreement with DOR—s approach during the discussion); the transcript does not record a formal roll-call vote.

Diesel

Diesel gallons and revenue were up year to date (analysts cited about a 1.4% or ~14 million gallons increase over the prior-year same period). Participants attributed much of the stronger diesel performance to higher construction expenditures and post-storm cleanup activity. Several analysts proposed modest upward revisions to near-term diesel growth and then a more gradual long-run pattern. At least one participant said they preferred the Economic Development/Reconciliation (EDR) analyst—s diesel forecast over alternatives.

Off-highway (dyed diesel)

Off-highway fuel collections were modestly above the prior year through the first six months. Analysts highlighted the series—s volatility (months can be all over the place) and attributed recent lifts to storm-related debris-removal demand. Some participants favored the DOR series for off-highway fuel.

Aviation fuel and refunds

Aviation-gallon collections fell year to date (analysts cited roughly 3% below prior-year same period and a double-digit decline in the most recent quarter). Panelists debated whether large Q4 declines reflected hurricane impacts or longer-term visitor/air-travel weakness. That uncertainty caused divergence in forecasts; several analysts trimmed aviation forecasts for fiscal 2025 while others partially discounted the Q4 drop as weather-related. For aviation fuel refunds (a large fraction of gross collections are later refunded because of statutory credits), participants noted higher year-to-date refund rates and discussed different methods (forecasting refunds as a rate versus forecasting refund dollars directly). By the end of the discussion participants indicated support for the Department of Revenue—s aviation refund approach, while highway/skets refund-rate preferences leaned toward the EOG/EDR-style averaging approach raised in the meeting.

Rental-car surcharge

Rental-car surcharge actual gross collections through the first eight months were about 1.5% above the prior-year same period, analysts said. Forecasters used overseas and overall visitor counts and noted ride-share and rail ridership gains (Brightline, SunRail, Uber/Lyft) as downward pressure on rental-car demand. Participants reported forecasts clustered closely; multiple attendees indicated they were comfortable adopting the DOT series for the rental-car surcharge.

Methodology notes and packet changes requested

Analysts described a two-month lag in distributions and that many series were sensitive to seasonal or storm-related anomalies. Participants proposed adding monthly actuals to the handout (similar to existing highway-safety tables) so committee members could more readily inspect monthly volatility without requiring a full monthly forecast. That item was assigned to a summer work list.

No formal vote recorded in transcript

The transcript records analysts— presentations, cross-questioning and several participants stating a preference for a particular agency—s series for a given revenue line (for example, several participants said they were —fine with DOR— or —I prefer EDR— for particular series). The record provided does not include a formal motion, roll call, or adoption vote.

Next steps and package materials

Speakers said the remainder of the published package shows the fallout tables and the alternative adoption tables (what the forecast would look like if an individual analyst—s full set were adopted). The group closed with plans to add month-to-month actuals to the handouts and to discuss display of National Estimating Conference variables in a summer meeting.