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Staff tightens solar and wind potentials after BLM Western Solar Plan and new NREL wind data
Summary
CPUC staff updated resource-potential estimates and land‑use screening: the BLM 2024 Western Solar Plan reduces some solar-eligible federal lands; staff adjusted solar-area discounting and raised the minimum capacity-factor threshold for in‑state wind to 30%.
CPUC staff presented land‑use and resource‑potential updates in the 2025 draft INA, reflecting the 2024 Bureau of Land Management Western Solar Plan and new NREL onshore wind capacity-factor rasters.
On utility-scale solar, staff compared the CEC core land-use screens with the BLM Western Solar Plan. The BLM plan excludes areas for conservation and restricts development to areas within 15 miles of existing or planned transmission. Staff said these exclusions disproportionately reduce available land in southern California and in some out‑of‑state regions. To account for the BLM restrictions, staff proposed revised accounting: retain a density factor (MW per km2) on CEC-eligible lands, remove the 80% developer/feasibility discount in the areas most impacted by the BLM plan, and reduce the discount to 50% in Northern California and other areas less affected. The net result in staff slides: a CEC land‑area potential of about 640 GW, a BLM exclusion removing ~200 GW, and a revised in‑state solar potential of about 280 GW after screening and discounts.
On onshore wind, staff reported new capacity‑factor rasters from NREL (the same dataset used in NREL’s 2024 supply curves) and re‑ran the tradeoff analysis between minimum viable project capacity factor and potential megawatts. Staff proposed increasing the minimum capacity-factor threshold from 28% (2023 PSP) to 30% for the 2025 INA; that change and a separate 50% reduction applied to the SCE East‑of‑Path area yield an in‑state wind potential of about 12.35 GW.
Other resource updates summarized by staff: - Hydrothermal geothermal: updated CEC dataset and recent development trues-ups result in ~3.4 GW in‑state potential. - Pumped hydro: candidate sites increased from 5 to 16 total surveyed locations; 14 are now considered candidate resources, raising potential from about 3 GW to 16 GW (staff said most sites will be classed by whether they require new reservoirs). - Out‑of‑state wind: staff constrained potentials by transmission deliverability, yielding roughly 9 GW New Mexico, 9 GW Wyoming and 1.1 GW Idaho available to the model; Utah wind was removed for lack of commercial interest.
Why it matters: Resource potential and land‑use screening determine the physical supply set Resolve can choose from. Changes to minimum capacity-factor thresholds, area discounts, or BLM exclusions can substantially change available megawatts and siting options for developers and planners.
Staff invited stakeholders to review the technical screens and provide data where available to refine potentials.
