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DRCOG presents regional housing needs assessment: 200,000–511,000 units cited as future gap; low‑income bins drive need
Summary
Denver Regional Council of Governments presented a regional housing needs assessment to the City of Boulder’s Housing Advisory Board, reporting large regional shortfalls concentrated between 0–60% AMI and a near‑term need figure the study framed as roughly 200,000 units (shorter policy window) and 511,000 by mid‑century.
Representatives from the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) briefed the Housing Advisory Board on Feb. 26 about a regional housing needs assessment intended to inform a DRCOG regional housing strategy and the next update to Metro Vision, DRCOG’s regional plan.
Sheila Lynch, DRCOG’s director for regional planning and development, described a three‑part study: a data‑driven needs analysis, a systems barriers review and early stakeholder input to frame strategy options. DRCOG staff said the assessment estimates roughly 511,000 new housing units regionally by 2050, and—using a shorter policy window—about 200,000 additional units by 2032. The report and accompanying dashboard break the need into area submarkets and income bands (AMI), with the greatest shortfalls concentrated in the lowest income bands (0–30% and 30–60% AMI).
DRCOG staff explained their methodology: population and household forecasts from the State Demography Office, distributions to submarkets based on employment, transit access and current vacancy, and an AMI‑level matching of households to housing supply. DRCOG said it estimated current unmet need as two parts: (1) “missing households” from changes in household formation and (2) unhoused households (DRCOG cited outreach‑based counts for the latter and used an estimate of roughly 30,000–35,000 unhoused households regionally).
The presentation produced jurisdiction‑level allocations of need; DRCOG’s dashboard shows the City of Boulder’s share of the shorter‑term allocation at roughly 10,000 units (DRCOG staff noted many local factors drive allocations, including employment and transit access). DRCOG representatives emphasized the assessment is a foundation for a regional housing strategy that will run through engagement in 2024 with a target to advance a strategy by January of the following year; robust, multi‑sector stakeholder involvement was described as a priority.
Board members questioned DRCOG staff about assumptions—particularly the distribution of need by AMI across all submarkets (DRCOG said the AMI distribution is set at the regional level and then allocated to submarkets), the handling of second homes and short‑term rentals (staff said they excluded them from supply but reviewed their impact), and how behavior change (for example, shifts to smaller units, ADUs, or reduced auto dependence) would alter housing demand. DRCOG staff said the regional strategy will consider such policy levers and that the needs assessment is the analytical foundation for those conversations.
DRCOG invited jurisdictions and stakeholders to use the online dashboard and to participate in spring engagement; staff said the board should expect more specific strategy conversations starting in April and continuing through the next year.
