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Decline in student enrollment trims Roanoke schools' revenue; staff forecast $560,000 shortfall
Summary
Budget staff reported a small drop in projected average daily membership (ADM) compared with the budget assumption. The shortfall of roughly 66 students would reduce general-fund revenue by about $560,000 at roughly $8,483.61 per pupil.
Roanoke County School Board staff told the Jan. 30 budget work session that a modest enrollment shortfall this year could reduce general-fund revenue by roughly $560,000.
Susan Peterson presented the revenue update and said the division used a mid-range enrollment projection when building the current-year budget. The Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) planning tool showed an estimate of 13,288 ADM and the division's fall funded membership was reported as 13,293; based on the historical relationship between fall-funded membership and final ADM, Peterson said the division may land the year with an ADM near 13,027 (a difference of about 66 students from the budget assumption).
Peterson provided the per-pupil figure used in the division's calculations: $8,483.61, which staff used to translate ADM differences into revenue. Using that per-pupil figure, the estimated impact to the general fund from the enrollment shortfall was approximately $560,000, Peterson said.
Board members asked about causes for the enrollment change. Peterson and other participants noted the division's demographic study and regional trends: single-family housing patterns, grade-progression methods, and national birth-rate trends were cited as likely contributors. Peterson said the division had relied on a five-year average of grade progression for projections and that longer-term projections through 2029 continue to show gradual declines.
Why this matters: state funding for K'12 operations is tied to ADM. Small shifts in student counts therefore produce meaningful changes in state revenues that feed the general fund and can affect staffing, step increases and other recurring costs.
Staff said they would continue to monitor ADM and present updated March ADM figures and that the division will aim for a conservative projection in next year's budget to avoid unexpected shortfalls.
