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APS adopts three‑year cohort survival method for enrollment projections to limit fall staffing disruptions
Summary
Finance staff described a new enrollment‑projection method using three‑year cohort survival ratios (kindergarten/6th/9th cohorts) intended to reduce fall staffing changes that disrupt students and schools.
Albuquerque Public Schools finance staff described a new methodology to project student enrollment for FY26 at the Feb. 26 finance committee meeting, saying the approach aims to reduce disruptive staffing changes early in the school year.
Staff said the district used a cohort “survival ratio” method based on three years of prior enrollment data, applied by grade, to smooth out year‑to‑year volatility. For elementary schools the district uses kindergarten as the base cohort, for middle schools sixth grade, and for high schools ninth grade. The…
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