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APS adopts three‑year cohort survival method for enrollment projections to limit fall staffing disruptions
Summary
Finance staff described a new enrollment‑projection method using three‑year cohort survival ratios (kindergarten/6th/9th cohorts) intended to reduce fall staffing changes that disrupt students and schools.
Albuquerque Public Schools finance staff described a new methodology to project student enrollment for FY26 at the Feb. 26 finance committee meeting, saying the approach aims to reduce disruptive staffing changes early in the school year.
Staff said the district used a cohort “survival ratio” method based on three years of prior enrollment data, applied by grade, to smooth out year‑to‑year volatility. For elementary schools the district uses kindergarten as the base cohort, for middle schools sixth grade, and for high schools ninth grade. The three‑year average of grade‑to‑grade ratios is used to predict next year’s counts and to set staffing and FTE allocations.
Chris West, who presented the method, said the district intends the approach to reduce the need to move teachers and reassign students after school starts. "What we did is we used 3 years of prior data to then try to predict what will happen next year," West said, describing the technique and an example calculation for Comanche Elementary School in the packet.
Staff acknowledged the method will not completely eliminate fall adjustments. The district uses the 20th day of the school year as the compliance date for staffing alignment and typically sees roster and assignment movement settle after Labor Day; some additional compliance checks occur after the winter break. Staff said they have shared parameters with principals, held support sessions and plan continued one‑on‑one budget conversations with assistant superintendents.
Why it matters: Enrollment projections drive staffing (FTE) and budget allocations. Using a cohort survival method is intended to lower the frequency and magnitude of mid‑fall staffing changes that disrupt classrooms, but staff cautioned some adjustments will still be required when schools are out of compliance with state minimums.
Supporting details: Staff explained that kindergarten counts are difficult to predict due to birth rates and school choice, so the district freezes the kindergarten baseline and projects forward; similarly, sixth and ninth grade cohorts are used for middle and high school projections. The district said numbers and calculation worksheets are public and available for review.
